卡内基国际和平基金会-Smart-Geostrategy-for-the-Eastern-Partnership_28页_1mb

Smart Geostrategy for the Eastern Partnership

Core Content

The Eastern Partnership (EaP), a framework for EU engagement with six post-Soviet states (Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Belarus), is at a critical juncture. The EU's relationship with these countries is under strain due to Russia's assertive tactics, including trade sanctions, energy supply interruptions, and security reprisals. The Vilnius summit in November 2013 is seen as a pivotal moment to either reinforce or weaken the EU's influence in the region.

The document argues that the EU must move beyond a technocratic and formalistic approach to the EaP and adopt a more strategic and values-oriented geostrategy. This shift is essential to counter Russian influence and to provide meaningful, tangible support to Eastern partners that are committed to reform.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Challenges Facing the Eastern Partnership

• Russia's assertive behavior: Threatens trade sanctions, energy cuts, and security reprisals against countries engaging with the EU.
• Uncertainty at the Vilnius summit: Georgia and Moldova are ready to initial association agreements but may not sign them, creating doubt.
• Geopolitical competition: The EU must avoid a zero-sum contest with Russia and instead offer a positive-sum, values-based alternative.
• Energy politics: The Nabucco pipeline was abandoned due to commercial viability concerns, highlighting the EU's struggle to secure energy independence.
• Russia's influence: The Eurasian Union and customs union have drawn some Eastern states away from EU integration, especially in Moldova and Armenia.
• EU's reactive stance: The EU's approach is often reactive and inconsistent, failing to address the political underpinnings of Russian influence.

2. Recommendations for a Positive-Sum Strategy

• Focus on political reform: The EU should support democratic standards in a proactive, bottom-up manner rather than relying on administrative compliance.
• Deliver tangible benefits: Reforming countries should receive targeted, rapid benefits from the EU to incentivize further cooperation.
• Use conditionality selectively: Conditionality should be based on progress on core reforms, not just administrative hurdles.
• Reform funding mechanisms: EU support for civil society should be more agile and participatory.
• Strengthen the EU's strategic vision: The EU must present a clear and coherent geopolitical strategy that goes beyond formal agreements and includes a security dimension.

3. Reasserting the EU's Role

• The EU's current approach is too passive and inconsistent in its geopolitical engagement.
• The Eurasian Union is seen as a Russian-led alternative to EU integration, but it lacks institutional clarity and economic viability.
• The EU must reinforce its values-based approach and support national sovereignty in EaP countries.
• The EU needs to demonstrate a more active and integrated strategy, including security cooperation and economic incentives, to counter Russian influence effectively.

4. The Ailments

• The EU's technocratic model of integration has led to low political engagement and insufficient strategic thinking.
• The EaP has not adequately addressed domestic governance issues, such as corruption and judicial interference, which undermine reform efforts.
• The 2013 EaP Integration Index highlights a disconnect between administrative alignment and real political challenges.
• The EU must prioritize understanding domestic dynamics and integrate this into its policy framework.

5. Domestic Barriers to Reform

• Weak governance structures in Eastern states have entrenched illiberal tendencies and corruption, making reform difficult.
• Low commitment to reform by post-Soviet governments has weakened state capacity and increased dependence on EU subsidies.
• Citizen disillusionment: Public trust in institutions is eroded due to corruption and lack of progress.
• Need for deeper engagement: The EU must recognize and address domestic political challenges to ensure the success of its reform agenda.

Conclusion

The document concludes that the EU must redefine its strategy in the Eastern Partnership to be more effective and politically engaged. It should move beyond formal agreements and bureaucratic processes to provide real political and economic support to EaP countries. The EU must also avoid a zero-sum competition with Russia and instead offer a compelling alternative based on democratic values and sustainable cooperation. The success of the EaP hinges on the EU's ability to reinforce its strategic role and address the root causes of instability in the region.

Notes

• The EU must balance its values-driven and geopolitical approaches.
• The Vilnius summit is a critical test of the EU's strategic commitment.
• The Eurasian Union is a key Russian geopolitical tool, but its effectiveness is questionable.
• Domestic reform is essential for the EU to achieve its geopolitical goals.
• The EU's role in the EaP is still evolving, and a more coherent strategy is needed.

Carnegie Europe

This report is part of the Carnegie Europe series, supported by the UK Department for International Development and the Robert Bosch Stiftung. It is intended to provide policy insights and strategic analysis on the EU's relations with its Eastern neighbors.