20231031-招银国际-中国人寿-02628.HK-3Q_NP_dragged_by_investment_setbacks__first-in-sector_steady_agent_scale_props_up_2024_NBV_7页_1mb

China Life (2628 HK) 2023年第三季度业绩总结

China Life reported its 2023 third-quarter results, with key highlights as follows:

• Profitability: Net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 36.0% year-on-year, resulting in a net loss of RMB6.1 billion in 3Q23. This was primarily due to pressured investment income and increased stock impairments, with total investment yield dropping to 2.81% and a rise in equity investment losses to RMB19.7 billion.

• New Business Value (NBV): Despite investment underperformance, NBV growth remained steady at +14.0% YoY in 9M23, driven by a +14.8% YoY increase in first-year premiums. However, 3Q23 NBV is estimated to be down ~6% YoY, possibly due to premature demand release.

• Key Drivers: Investment pressure continued due to Chinese equity market fluctuations, with CSI 300, SHCOMP, and GEI indices declining significantly in 3Q23. Management attributes part of the profit pullback to market conditions, not core underwriting fundamentals.

• Analyst Adjustments: Earnings forecasts for FY23-FY25 were revised downward to RMB21.9 billion/RMB42.3 billion/RMB47.4 billion, reflecting concerns about sustained investment volatility and potential further equity impairments.

• Agency and Productivity: Agent numbers stabilized at 0.66 million, and productivity improved with FYRP per agent up 28.6% YoY. The resumption of jumpstart services for prepaid customers eased operational concerns.

• Valuation: The company trades at 0.2x FY23E P/EV and 0.6x P/B, below historical averages. Target price remains HK$17.81, with a upside potential of 66.4% based on expected economic recovery.

Overall, the report suggests that while investment headwinds may persist, strong agency growth supports positive long-term prospects for China Life, though risks remain from equity market volatility.