2009年-世界发展银行全球_Serbia_-_Doing_More_with_Less___Addressing_the_Fiscal_Crisis_by_Increasing_Public_Sector_Productivity_99页_7mb

Summary of the World Bank Report: Serbia - Doing More with Less

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank in June 2009, focuses on addressing Serbia's fiscal crisis by improving public sector productivity. It outlines key areas of public expenditure and proposes reforms to reduce costs while maintaining service quality. The report is based on findings from missions to Serbia between December 2008 and May 2009.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Context: Serbia's economy was affected by the global economic crisis, leading to slowed growth and increased fiscal pressures. The report highlights the need for expenditure restraint and efficiency gains.
• Fiscal Constraints: The Serbian government has implemented short-term measures like wage and pension freezes, and cuts in capital works and discretionary spending. These are not sustainable in the long term.
• Public Sector Productivity: The report emphasizes the importance of improving productivity in key public services (pensions, health, education, social assistance, and transport) to reduce costs and ensure long-term fiscal stability.

Key Information

1. Pensions

• Overview: Pensions are the largest single program of government expenditure, accounting for one third of total consolidated central government spending in 2008.
• Issues: High costs due to generous benefits (nearly 60% of net average wage), early retirement incentives, and demographic pressures (low birth rate).
• Reforms:
  • Nominal pension freezes for 2009 and 2010.
  • Indexation to inflation after the fiscal emergency.
  • Consideration of raising retirement age for women and reducing early retirement benefits.
  • Improving contribution and benefit administration.

2. Health

• Overview: Health care spending in 2008 accounted for 15% of consolidated central government expenditure.
• Issues: Inefficiencies in the system, with low hospital bed occupancy rates and no incentives for service quality or volume.
• Reforms:
  • Adoption of a capitation-based payment system for primary care.
  • Transition to an output-based system (DRG or prospective payment) for hospital care.
  • Pilot testing of reforms and careful design to prevent fraud.

3. Education

• Overview: Education spending accounted for 10% of consolidated central government expenditure in 2008.
• Issues: Poor outcomes relative to spending, with many inefficiently small classes and an overstaffed teaching workforce.
• Reforms:
  • Consolidating under-enrolled classes within schools (10% cost reduction).
  • Consolidating under-enrolled classes across schools in the same municipality (25% cost reduction, but requires school closures).
  • Local governments should be involved in school closure decisions, similar to Bulgaria.

4. Social Assistance

• Overview: Social assistance spending was relatively low, with less than one quarter of funds specifically targeted to poor households.
• Issues: Insufficient funding for targeted programs like the MOP and child allowance.
• Reforms:
  • Increase funding for the MOP and child benefits.
  • Consider the impact of the recession on the number of needy households.

5. Agricultural and Enterprise Subsidies

• Overview: Significant spending on agricultural subsidies, primarily fixed payments per hectare.
• Issues: These subsidies are less distortionary than previous ones but not effective in promoting agriculture or reducing rural poverty.
• Reforms:
  • Scale back area-based payments.
  • Implement means testing.
  • Transition from input and price subsidies to more targeted support.

6. Roads

• Overview: Roads are a major component of public expenditure, with a focus on Corridor X upgrades.
• Issues: Under-funding of maintenance, leading to deterioration of the road network.
• Reforms:
  • Efficiency gains through better project prioritization and performance contracts.
  • Consideration of toll administration improvements.
  • Postponing Corridor X projects and reducing design speed to cut costs by 60%.

7. Railways

• Overview: Zeleznice Srbije (Serbian Railways) faces financial difficulties, with declining passenger traffic and increasing freight traffic.
• Issues: Operating losses not covered by current subsidies.
• Reforms:
  • Postpone Corridor X works.
  • Reduce design speed from 160 km/hr to 120 km/hr.
  • Terminate underused passenger services.
  • Reduce staff and increase passenger tariffs.

8. Fiscal Impact

• Short-Term Savings: The proposed reforms could yield annual savings equivalent to about 8% of consolidated central government expenditures in 2008.
• Long-Term Savings: Continued expenditure restraint, particularly through wage and pension freezes, will be crucial in the short and medium term.
• Challenges: Social pressures and administrative constraints may slow the pace of reform. The fiscal impact will be evident over the medium term, but the most important impact will be on service quality.

9. IMF Standby Arrangements

• Overview: Serbia requested a precautionary SBA with the IMF in late 2008, which was agreed upon in January 2009.
• Terms: A 15-month program with a €402.5 million SBA, expected to be replaced by a 27-month SBA.
• Measures:
  • Nominal wage and pension freezes through 2010.
  • Reduction in discretionary budgets.
  • Suspension of non-essential hiring.
  • Reduction in agricultural subsidies and abolition of per-hectare land payments to legal entities.

Conclusion

The report recommends a comprehensive approach to fiscal reform in Serbia, focusing on improving public sector productivity across key services. While short-term measures are necessary, long-term sustainability requires structural reforms that can reduce costs and enhance service delivery. The reforms are expected to have a significant impact on the fiscal position of the government, even after economic growth resumes.