2005年-世界发展银行全球_Smallholder_Tobacco_Growing_in_Indonesia___Costs_and_Profitability_Compared_with_Other_Agricultural_Enterprises_88页_2mb

Summary of "Smallholder Tobacco Growing in Indonesia: Costs and Profitability Compared with Other Agricultural Enterprises"

Core Content

This document presents a supply-side economic analysis of smallholder tobacco farming in Indonesia, comparing its financial costs and returns with other agricultural enterprises. The study was conducted as part of a broader World Bank initiative on tobacco and tobacco control, with support from SIDA and the US CDC/OSH. It provides insights into the potential for crop diversification among tobacco farmers and the economic implications of reduced tobacco demand.

Main Objectives

• To compare the financial performance of smallholder tobacco farming with other crops that either complement tobacco or offer diversification potential.
• To illustrate the costs and returns of different production levels (low, medium, and high-input management) for tobacco and other crops.
• To assess the implications of long-term price changes on the profitability of tobacco and other agricultural enterprises.
• To provide a basis for policy-making by offering a practical approach to farm budget analysis.

Key Findings

• Profitability Comparison: Chilli, potatoes, nilam, and oranges offer similar or better net profits and rates of return than tobacco.
• Market Limitations: Markets for alternative crops are generally more limited than for tobacco, requiring significant investment in support services and trading networks.
• Perennial Crops Challenges: Perennial crops like nilam and oranges have long maturity periods and high establishment costs, making a shift from tobacco difficult and risky.
• Government Concerns: Many governments fear that tobacco control measures, such as tax increases, could harm the economy and farmer incomes. However, the study argues that these fears are largely unfounded.
• Job and Income Implications: Tobacco control could potentially generate new jobs and not lead to a net loss in employment, especially in the context of increased tax revenues and improved public health outcomes.
• Data Limitations: The analysis is based on data from two regencies in Central Java (Temanggung and Klaten), which account for 23% of Indonesia's total tobacco production in 2000. The study does not cover all types of tobacco or clove farming, which are also important for smallholder farmers.

Methodology and Data

• The study uses 24 original per hectare crop budgets specifically estimated for this analysis, covering eight distinct enterprises including Virginia-kretek tobacco and seven other crops.
• Data Sources: Included farmer surveys, firsthand discussions with smallholder farmers, traders, and representatives, and information from the Institut Pertanian Stiper (INSTIPER).
• Financial Indicators: The analysis includes net profit, rate of return, total production costs, and investment requirements.
• Sensitivity Analysis: Considered different production levels and price scenarios to evaluate the robustness of financial outcomes.
• Limitations: The data is not definitive and is limited to specific regions and crops. Further research is needed to verify coefficients and expand the analysis to more commodities and locations.

Recommendations

• Support for Diversification: Smallholder farmers may need significant support to transition to alternative crops, including specialized services and expanded trading networks.
• Policy Implications: Governments should consider implementing tobacco control measures, such as tax increases, without fear of economic harm, as these can lead to increased tax revenues and improved public health.
• Further Research: Verification of model coefficients and expansion of the analysis to other regions and crops are recommended to improve the accuracy and applicability of the findings.

Key Crops Analyzed

Conclusion

The study suggests that while tobacco remains a profitable enterprise, there are alternative crops that offer comparable or better financial returns. However, the success of crop diversification depends on the availability of support systems and market access. The findings provide a foundation for further research and policy development aimed at promoting sustainable agricultural growth and diversification in Indonesia.