城市研究所-2021年美国贫困预测：评估福利和刺激措施的影响（英）-2021.7-46页_522kb

2021 Poverty Projections: Assessing the Impact of Benefits and Stimulus Measures

Core Content Overview

This report provides updated poverty projections for 2021, analyzing the impact of government benefits and pandemic-related stimulus measures on reducing poverty in the United States. The projections are based on the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which accounts for a broader range of income and expenses than the official poverty measure.

Key Findings

• Overall Poverty Rate: The projected 2021 poverty rate is 7.7%, down from 13.9% in 2018, due to improved economic conditions and the implementation of various relief programs.
• Deep Poverty Rate: The projected deep poverty rate (family income below 50% of the SPM threshold) is 2.6%, compared to 4.2% in 2018.
• Income Distribution:
  • 36.5% of the population is projected to have low family income (below 200% of the SPM threshold).
  • Children have the lowest poverty rate at 5.6%, while people aged 65 and older have the highest at 9.2%.
• Racial and Ethnic Disparities:
  • Black, non-Hispanic people have the highest projected poverty rate at 9.2%.
  • Hispanic people have the highest rate at 11.8%.
  • Non-Hispanic Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) people have a projected rate of 10.8%, slightly higher than Black non-Hispanic people.
  • White, non-Hispanic people have the lowest rate at 5.8%.
• Household Unemployment Impact:
  • Households with someone unemployed for at least six months have a higher projected poverty rate at 11.6%, compared to 7.0% for those with less unemployment.

Program Effects on Poverty

• Without Any Benefits: The 2021 poverty rate would be 23.1%.
• With All Benefits: The combined effect of benefits and stimulus measures reduces the poverty rate by 67%, keeping nearly 50 million Americans out of poverty.
• Federal Stimulus Checks: Have the largest antipoverty impact, with 12.4 million more people projected to be in poverty if they were not included.
• SNAP Benefits: Keep 7.9 million people out of poverty.
• Unemployment Insurance (UI): Reduce the number of people in poverty by 6.7 million.
• Age Group Impact:
  • Children experience the largest reduction in poverty (from 30.1% to 5.6%), a 81% decrease.
  • Adults aged 18–64 have a 74% reduction in poverty.
  • AAPIs have the smallest impact (54% reduction), due to factors like geographic location and demographics.
• State-Level Variations:
  • The lowest poverty rate is in Minnesota at 4.9%.
  • The highest poverty rate is in Florida at 10.9%.
  • Child poverty rates vary from 1.9% in Maine to 8.8% in Delaware and Florida.

Methodology

• The projections use the Urban Institute's ATTIS model, which incorporates:
  • Employment, population, and income data projected to 2021.
  • The SPM, which includes:
    • Cash income.
    • Tax payments.
    • Work-related expenses (e.g., child care).
    • Medical out-of-pocket expenses.
    • In-kind benefits (e.g., housing subsidies, nutrition assistance).
    • Stimulus checks.
• Threshold Adjustments:
  • Reflect actual spending on food, clothing, shelter, and utilities.
  • Adjust for family size, number of children, and housing type (rent, own with/without mortgage).
  • Incorporate geographic differences in median rent.

Conclusion

The 2021 poverty projections indicate a significant reduction in poverty compared to 2018, largely due to the impact of government benefits and pandemic-related stimulus measures. However, racial and ethnic disparities remain, with minority groups still experiencing higher poverty rates. Unemployment continues to be a major factor in determining poverty levels, and state-level policy differences also play a role in shaping these outcomes. The SPM provides a more comprehensive view of economic well-being than the official poverty measure, highlighting the importance of considering a broader set of factors when assessing poverty.