股权融资的未来_私人资本如何重塑公共市场（英文版）_34页_2mb

Summary: The Future of Equity Capital Raising

Core Content

This report explores the evolving landscape of equity capital markets, particularly the IPO market, and how private capital, technology, and regulatory changes are reshaping the traditional approach to going public. It outlines current trends and provides insights from industry experts and a survey of 353 senior executives from both public and private companies.

Main Viewpoints

• Market Conditions: Despite a decade-long bull run, global markets are at a crossroads due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. However, the IPO pipeline remains robust, with significant capital raised in 2018, including record-breaking deals like the $21bn SoftBank Group Corp float.
• Private Capital Growth: The availability of private capital has enabled companies to grow larger and wait longer before going public. This trend is especially pronounced in the technology sector, where unicorns are delaying IPOs to maximize value.
• IPO Size Increase: The average size of an IPO has increased over the past 20 years, from $89m to $166m globally, and from $125m to $257m in the US. This reflects the impact of private capital and the strategic decision to delay public listings.
• Shift from Public to Private Markets: 84% of executives believe there is a shift in where companies source equity capital, with many choosing to remain private longer. This shift is seen as a temporary trend in some regions but potentially a longer-term change in others.
• Cross-Border Listings: Cross-border IPO activity reached $60bn in 2018, the highest since 2014. The US, Hong Kong, and London are the top destinations, with Chinese technology companies leading the charge. Exchanges are adapting their rules to attract more IPO business.
• Emergence of Direct Listings: Direct listings, which bypass traditional underwriting, are gaining traction. 65% of executives expect an increase in direct listings, particularly in the US and Europe. While seen as a cost-effective alternative, they are not expected to replace traditional IPOs widely in the near future.
• Role of Technology: Emerging technologies like AI and blockchain are influencing the IPO process, potentially leading to new platforms and more efficient capital allocation. Exchanges are also exploring blockchain-based post-trade settlement systems.
• Regulatory Changes: Regulatory reforms, such as Mifid II in Europe and changes in the UK, aim to improve transparency and fairness but may also increase costs and reduce liquidity for small-cap companies. Exchanges are adapting to these changes to remain competitive.

Key Information

• IPO Pipeline: A healthy pipeline of potential IPOs exists, with 83% of 200 private companies considering an IPO in the next 3–5 years.
• Valuation and Liquidity: These are the top factors influencing where companies choose to list, followed by regulatory environment, analyst coverage, and peer group performance.
• Tech Sector Leadership: The technology sector is a major driver of IPO activity, with Chinese tech companies leading in both volume and value. This trend is expected to continue.
• IPO Alternatives: Direct listings and equity crowdfunding are emerging as alternatives to traditional IPOs. Direct listings are seen as a viable option for some companies, particularly those with strong brand recognition.
• Global Exchange Competition: Asian exchanges, particularly Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, are emerging as key competitors to New York and London. The total value of IPOs in Asia-Pacific reached $80bn in 2018, double that of the Americas and Europe.
• Regulatory Impact: While regulatory changes are generally viewed as positive, they can pose challenges such as increased costs and reduced liquidity for small-cap firms.

Trends and Outlook

• Future of IPOs: The future of IPOs is uncertain but shows signs of resilience. Companies are more focused on achieving the best valuation and investor interest.
• IPO Alternatives: Direct listings and equity crowdfunding are expected to grow in importance, especially for start-ups and high-growth firms.
• Regional Dynamics: The European IPO market faces challenges due to regulatory and market sentiment, while the US and Asia-Pacific remain strong. Cross-border listings are on the rise, driven by the desire to access international capital and specialized markets.
• Technology's Role: Technology is transforming the IPO process, offering new tools and platforms that could enhance efficiency and transparency.

Conclusion

While the traditional IPO process is under pressure from private capital and new listing alternatives, public markets remain a critical component of capital allocation. The future will likely see a blend of traditional and alternative IPO methods, with exchanges adapting to stay relevant and competitive. The role of technology and regulatory reforms will be pivotal in shaping this evolution.