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Analysis and Summary of the State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2024

Introduction

The 2024 State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO 2024) report, published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, explores the complex linkages between food trade and nutrition (Ed. See full methodology), generating evidence to identify how trade affects dietary patterns and nutritional outcomes. Based on extensive data analysis, the report examines trade's impacts on food diversity, nutrient supply, and the prevalence of malnutrition globally.

Methodology

The SO CO 2024 analysis relies on FAO's extensive databases of trade and production statistics, complemented by external expert assessments. Data spans 1961–2023, incorporating temperature, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and agrifood trade. The report uses three primary approaches:

• Time series analysis of food trade patterns and nutrition outcomes
• Cross-country econometric models to isolate trade effects from income growth
• Policy coherence assessments for trade and nutrition measures

These methods helped examine food diversity, nutrient gaps, and obesity trends, while also evaluating policy mechanisms like taxation, subsidies, and labeling to promote healthier food environments.

Key Findings

Food Trade and Dietary Diversity

• Global food trade nearly quintupled (USD 400 billion in 2000 to USD 1.9 trillion in 2022), with trade increasing food diversity by nearly twofold across countries on average.
• Countries more open to trade achieved greater dietary diversity through imports, improving access to a wide range of foods for their populations.

Nutrient Supply and Gaps

• Trade helped bridge nutrient gaps by increasing the availability and supply of essential micronutrients like vitamin A and calcium through imports.
• Expansion in food trade between 2010 and 2020 increased average supplies of key micronutrients significantly, though gaps persist, particularly in low-income countries.

Trade and Obesity

• Food imports, especially ultra-processed foods, are associated with higher obesity rates in high-income countries and low- income regions like the Pacific islands.
• A 1 percent increase in trade openness resulted in a 0.8 percent increase in the prevalence of obesity globally, indicating trade's mixed impacts on nutrition outcomes.

Policy Implications

Strengthening Policy Coherence

• Regional trade agreements can facilitate imports of healthy foods while restricting consumption of energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods through labelling and standards.
• Governments can implement front-of-package labelling, excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages, and subsidies for nutritious foods to promote healthier diets without compromising trade rules.

Building Capacities for Policymakers

• Trade and nutrition policymakers should collaborate to address economic, social and health dimensions of sustainable development.
• Involving diverse stakeholders (health sectors, business groups, civil society) ensures negotiations for deeper trade agreements prioritize nutrition outcomes.

Limitations and Future Directions

• The analysis cannot definitively distinguish whether observed trade effects on nutrition stem from trade policy changes versus income growth.
• Future work should assess the nutritional impacts of technology in agrifood systems and how trade affects climate-sensitive food supply.

Conclusion

The 2024 SO CO report provides robust evidence that food trade strengthens food availability and dietary diversity, directly and indirectly impacting nutrition outcomes. However, trade’s heterogenous effects require policymakers to strengthen policy coherence between trade and nutrition measures. Prioritizing nutrition in trade negotiations and fiscal policies can nudge consumption toward healthy diets while ensuring food systems resilience for sustainable development.