IMF-释放印度的增长潜力（英）-2023.4-26页_1006kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Unleashing India’s Growth Potential"

Introduction

This paper analyzes India’s long-term growth potential, focusing on the impacts of COVID-19 and structural reforms. It aims to identify key drivers of past growth, assess pandemic effects, and project medium-term potential growth under baseline and upside scenarios. The analysis is based on data from 1971 to 2022, comparing India with other economies.

Methodology

Uses an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function to estimate potential growth.
Data sources include Penn World Table (PWT) 10.0, National Accounts, Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), and UN/World Bank data.
Production function: Growth rate is influenced by capital, labor, human capital, and total factor productivity (TFP).

Past Growth Drivers

Labor was the primary driver in the 1970s and 1980s.
Capital played a key role from the 1990s to the 2010s, supported by reforms.
TFP growth emerged as a significant contributor in recent years.
Comparison with South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. highlights India’s reliance on capital accumulation, with opportunities for reforms in labor and TFP.

Baseline Scenario: Pandemic Impact

The pandemic caused severe declines in investment, employment, and productivity in 2020.
Medium-term effects include reduced capital accumulation, persistent labor shortages (especially female and youth), and temporary human capital losses.
TFP declined due to reallocation of labor to less productive sectors.
Baseline potential growth for 2027 is estimated at 6%, lower than pre-pandemic counterfactual due to cumulative losses.

Upside Scenario: Reform Dividends

Structural reforms can boost potential growth to 7% by 2027, offsetting pandemic losses.
Key reforms include enhancing female labor force participation, reducing youth unemployment, strengthening vocational training, and improving business environments.
Advancements in digitalization, land reforms, and education can support TFP and human capital growth.

Conclusion and Policy Implications

Policy recommendations include investment-friendly policies, labor market reforms, education and training initiatives, and broader structural changes.
Successful reforms could harness India’s demographic dividend and unlock growth potential, while addressing vulnerabilities from the pandemic.