2010年-世界发展银行全球_Crisis_Monitoring_and_Response_System_91页_2mb

Summary of the Crisis Monitoring and Response System (CMRS) Document

Core Content of the Document

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Crisis Monitoring and Response System (CMRS), focusing on its design, development, implementation, results, and evaluation. It outlines the objectives, structure, methodology, and outcomes of the CMRS, which was initiated in January 2009 by the Government of Indonesia (GOI) through the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), to assess the impact of the Global Economic Crisis (GEC) on Indonesia. The document also includes a detailed description of the Crisis Monitoring and Response System Survey (CMRSS), the data collection and analysis procedures, and the qualitative complement to the system.

Main Objectives of CMRS

• To monitor and assess the impact of the GEC and other shocks on Indonesian districts.
• To identify districts at risk or in crisis based on changes in key indicators.
• To support policy responses that alleviate the effects of crises on the poor and vulnerable.
• To develop an operational system that can be used for future crisis monitoring.

Key Components of CMRS

• CMRSS (Crisis Monitoring and Response System Survey): A quarterly household survey conducted by BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics), collecting data on indicators not available from existing sources.
• Health Data Collection: Quarterly data collected from community health centers (Puskesmas) and district health offices (Dinas Kesehatan).
• Qualitative Analysis: Conducted by SMERU, aimed at providing deeper insights into the causes and trends of observed changes in quantitative data.
• Risk Flag System: Used to identify districts at risk or in crisis. A red risk flag indicates significant adverse movement in indicators, while an orange risk flag indicates a smaller but still significant adverse movement.

Organizational Structure and Roles

• Client: Bappenas, with Dr. Bambang and later Dedi Masykur Riyadh and Endah Murniningtyas as key contacts.
• Development and Analysis Team: Led by the World Bank (WB) Poverty Section, including Dr. Matthew Wai-poi, Dr. Ririn Purnamasari, and Ms. Lina Marliani.
• Data Collection and Capture Contractor: BPS was contracted to collect and process CMRSS data, with Pak Happy Harjo as the lead.
• Consultant: Mr. Michael Colledge, responsible for questionnaire design, sampling plan, and data analysis framework.
• Project Manager: Mr. Luc Spyckerelle, overseeing day-to-day operations, coordination, and reporting.
• Data Analyst and IT Specialist: Pak Taufik Hidayat, tasked with data processing, system integration, and dissemination.

Data Collection and Survey Design

• Three Rounds of Survey: Conducted in August 2009, November 2009, and February 2010, covering 471 districts.
• Sample Design: Each district had 5 census blocks of 6 households surveyed, totaling 14,130 households.
• Survey Frequency: Quarterly, with 39 health indicators collected per quarter.
• Data Sources: Included existing Sakernas (labour force survey) and Susenas (socio-economic survey) data, as well as administrative health data from Puskesmas and Dinas Kesehatan.

Analytical Framework

• Indicators: A list of crisis indicators was developed, including employment, income, consumption, and health-related indicators.
• Quantitative Analysis: Based on probability theory and sampling methods, including Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS).
• Qualitative Analysis: Aimed to validate and contextualize quantitative findings, providing a complementary understanding of crisis impacts.
• Risk Flag Assignment: Based on adverse movements in indicators, with red and orange flags indicating significant and moderate changes, respectively.
• Crisis vs. Vulnerability: Crisis refers to recent negative changes in indicators, while vulnerability refers to chronic low levels of indicators.

Results of Analysis

• National Level: The GEC had significant impacts on labour, household economics, and coping strategies.
• Provincial and District Levels: The crisis effects varied across regions, with district-level data showing more detailed insights into local conditions.
• Data Quality Considerations: Both quantitative and qualitative data were subject to quality checks, with the aim of ensuring validity, reliability, and objectivity.

Evaluation and Institutionalization

• Evaluation: Covered processes, quality, and outcomes of the CMRS, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses.
• Future Directions: The system was intended to be institutionalized, with VSMRS (Crisis and Vulnerability Monitoring and Response System) as a potential successor.
• Lessons Learned: Emphasized the importance of coordination, data integration, and sustainable monitoring systems.

Key Terminology

• Crisis: A situation caused by shock or gradual deterioration, such as the GEC or natural disasters.
• Adverse Movement: A negative change in an indicator that indicates increased risk.
• Risk Flag: A red or orange flag assigned to a district based on changes in indicators.
• Benchmark: A reference value from more reliable sources like Sakernas or Susenas.
• LQAS: A sampling method used to assess whether a proportion of a population meets a target.

Conclusion

The CMRS was a comprehensive system for monitoring the impact of the GEC on Indonesian districts. It combined quantitative survey data with qualitative analysis, and was designed to support timely and effective policy responses. The system was implemented through a collaborative effort involving BPS, the World Bank, and SMERU, with a focus on data accuracy, timeliness, and usability. The document serves as a reference for future crisis monitoring initiatives in Indonesia.