2023-06-08-IMF-在家工作在发展中经济体会继续吗_（英）_44页_1mb

Summary: Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?

This IMF working paper analyzes the adoption and sustainability of working from home (WFH) in developing economies during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, using a new online survey dataset and a calibrated economic model.

Key Findings

1. Cross-Country Differences:

   • WFH adoption varied significantly across 10 developing countries:
     • Argentina, Ecuador, Peru: Saw large increases (>10 percentage points in telework days per week).
     • Indonesia, Türkiye: Experienced very limited increases.
   • Adjustments generally stabilized after one year post-pandemic. Telework preferences shifted toward WFH, particularly among highly educated workers, while the income discount associated with WFH diminished with the pandemic's onset and partially reversed.

2. Factors Influencing WFH:

   • Education Attainment: Higher educational attainment positively influenced WFH adoption, though less educated workers faced obstacles (e.g., skill mismatches, limited technology access).
   • Internet Access: Digital infrastructure was a key determinant of WFH feasibility, with correlations to education and pre-pandemic fundamentals.
   • Economy-Wide Externality: Strategic complementarities among firms (e.g., if business partners adopted WFH) played a role in amplifying small differences in circumstances. This externality may lead to very different outcomes even with small cross-country differences.

3. Income Impacts:

   • A large income discount existed pre-pandemic for WFH jobs (similar to U.S. data from 1980), but it disappeared temporarily during the pandemic.
   • WFH incomes partially recovered by late 2021. Less educated workers faced a sharper income penalty for remote work compared to more educated workers.

4. Sustainability:

   • The persistence of WFH in developing economies may depend on factors like internet access, educational attainment, and removal of barriers to remote work (e.g., enhancing digital infrastructure and addressing skill mismatches).
   • Evidence suggests that WFH adoption was less about income profitability and more about preferences or shocks to remote work, especially among less educated workers.

5. Other Implications:

   • Agglomeration effects and logistics gains from WFH could increase its profitability but depend on remote job modality shares.
   • Policies and investments in digital infrastructure may be critical to making WFH sustainable and inclusive.

Conclusion

WFH adoption in developing economies was influenced by a mix of country-specific factors, worker demographics, and pandemic-induced shocks. The long-term persistence of WFH depends on addressing underlying barriers such as educational gaps, internet access disparities, and job skill mismatches. Work arrangements with externalities are crucial in explaining observed heterogeneity, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to support inclusive remote work.