20250717-大越期货-锰硅早报_20页_1019kb

报告摘要

MnSi Daily View Summary - July 17, 2025

Report Issuer: Danyang Futures Investment Consulting Department
Analyst: Hu Yuxiu (从业资格证号: F03105325, 投资咨询证号: Z0021337)
Report Date: 2025-07-17

Key Analysis Points

Fundamental Factors

锰矿现货价格上涨，提供成本支撑；硅锰厂出货意愿弱，钢招进程待定；预期短期价格暂稳，需关注钢招进展，整体中性。

Basis

当前现货价格5700元/吨，期货09合约基差-50元/吨，现货贴水期货，技术面偏空。

Inventory

全国63家样本企业库存达221,800吨；全国钢厂平均可用天数15.49天，库存数据中性。

Price Technicals

MA20均线向上，09合约期价高于MA20，显示短期偏多动能；但主力持仓净空且空头增持，技术面略微偏空。

Market Expectation

预计锰硅价格本周震荡运行，SM2509合约目标区间5700-5900元/吨。

Additional Insights

Supply-Side: Long-term capacity constraints and regional production variations indicate steadiness, but short-term fluctuations in steel demand could affect prices.
Demand-Side: Steel procurement indicators show mixed signals, with prices and volumes from major buyers like Baosteel reflecting uncertainty.
**Cost and Profit:**进口锰矿库存和价格数据显示供应稳定，但成本上升可能压缩利润空间，尤其在北方大区和南方大区差异显著。
Overall Outlook: 市场处于震荡区间，基本面支撑和技术面信号矛盾，建议投资者谨慎操作，结合实时数据调整策略。

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and this analysis is based on publicly available data as of July 17, 2025. Investors should not rely solely on this report and should conduct their own research. Transaction consulting qualification: 证监许可【2012】1091号. Errors or omissions may occur, and the issuer assumes no liability.

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