2023-02-09-莱坊-Spain_New_Build_Residential_Snapshot_Q4_2022_2页_740kb

Residential Market Summary - Q4 2022

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the residential market in Spain for Q4 2022, including data on approvals, final works certificates, transactions, and housing prices. It also outlines the economic context, the impact of the pandemic, and key contacts for further information.

Key Market Indicators

Approvals and Final Works Certificates

• Approvals: In Q3 2022, there were 78,100 approvals, representing a -1% year-on-year decrease.
• Final Works Certificates: In Q3 2022, there were 66,500 final works certificates, a -2% decrease compared to the same period in 2021.
• Annual Forecast:
  • Approvals are expected to reach 110,000 by year-end, a 2% increase from 2021.
  • Final works certificates are projected to decline by 10% compared to 2021, due to the lag between approvals and completions.

Transactions and Prices

• Transactions: In the first nine months of 2022, over 525,000 units of free housing were transacted. This is expected to rise to 655,000 by year-end, slightly higher than in 2021.
• Prices:
  • Free housing: The average price in Q3 2022 was 1,740 €/sq m, up by 4.7% year-on-year.
  • New-build housing: The average price reached over 2,000 €/sq m, an increase of 6% year-on-year.
  • Existing housing: Prices were around 1,730 €/sq m, with a 4.7% year-on-year increase, which is less pronounced than in new-build.

Economic Context

• GDP Growth: Spain's GDP grew by 4.5% in Q3 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. The IMF forecasts a 4.6% growth for the year-end.
• CPI Inflation: The CPI growth slowed slightly but remained at 5.7% year-on-year at the end of 2022.

Foreign Buyers

• Origin of Buyers: Europeans continue to be the main source of foreign buyers in the Spanish housing market, accounting for 45% of transactions.
• Market Insight: The document notes that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has created uncertainty in market activity, making it difficult to compare previous data. It advises that the future impact of the virus on the real estate market is still unknown.

Historical Trends

• Mortgages: The number of mortgages in Spain increased significantly from 2015 to Q3 2022, with a 15% rise in November 2022 compared to the previous year. It is expected to close the year at around 470,000, an increase of more than 10% compared to 2021.
• Price Trends:
  • New-build prices have shown consistent growth from 2017 to 2022.
  • Existing housing prices have also increased, though at a slower rate.
• Regional Variations:
  • New-build prices varied by province in Q3 2022 compared to Q3 2021.
  • A visual representation of the price variation is included in the document.

Key Contacts

• Carlos Zamora:

  • Title: Partner, Head of Residential
  • Phone: +34 600 919 041
  • Email: Carlos.Zamora@es.knightfrank.com

• Rosa Uriol:

  • Title: Head of Research
  • Phone: +34 600 919 114
  • Email: RosaUriol@es.knightfrank.com

Recent Publications

• European Living sectors: A publication from 2022-2023 is available.
• Other Reports: Additional reports are included, though specific titles are not listed.

Disclaimer

• This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon for decision-making.
• Knight Frank España, S.A.U. does not accept any responsibility or liability for losses or damages resulting from the use of this document.
• Reproduction of this report is not permitted without prior written approval.
• Knight Frank España, S.A.U. is a limited liability partnership registered in Madrid with CIF A-79122552. Its registered office is located at Suero de Quiñones 34, 28002 Madrid.

Sources

• GDP Evolution: Source: INE
• CPI Evolution: Source: INE
• Mortgages and Transactions: Source: Knight Frank Research / Ministry of Public Works
• Price Variations: Source: Ministry of Public Works