2021-06-14-莱坊-Spain_New_Build_Residential_Snapshot_Q2_2021_June_2021_2页_759kb

Residential Market Summary: Spain Q2 2021

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the residential market in Spain during Q2 2021, highlighting trends in approvals and final works certificates, transactions and prices, and broader economic and market context. It also includes contact information for key personnel and references to related research reports.

Key Market Indicators

Approvals and Final Works Certificates

• Q1 2020 to Q1 2021:
  • Approvals: 23,800, showing a -1% year-on-year (y-o-y) variation.
  • Final Works Certificates: 19,900, with a -1% y-o-y variation.
• Expected Growth:
  • Building permits are projected to increase gradually, reaching 95,000 by the end of 2021, an 11% increase compared to 2020.
  • Final works certificates are expected to rise by nearly 5%, reaching 90,000 by the end of 2021.

Transactions and Prices

• Transactions:
  • In Q1 2021, there were 118,500 transactions, a +2% increase compared to Q1 2020.
  • The total number of transactions for 2021 is expected to reach 400,000, a +6% increase from the previous year.
• Prices:
  • Free housing price: Stabilized in Q1 2021 with an annual variation of -0.9%.
  • New-build average price: 1,880 €/sq m.
  • Existing housing average price: 1,620 €/sq m.
  • Prices are still slightly lower than in the same period of the previous year.

Economic and Market Context

GDP Growth

• Spain's GDP showed a y-o-y variation close to 20% in the second quarter of 2021, indicating strong economic recovery.
• This suggests a positive outlook for the real estate market as the economy continues to improve.

Social Security Affiliates

• The number of people affiliated with the Social Security increased to 19.3 million in June 2021, a 4% increase compared to June 2020.
• This growth reflects improved employment and economic conditions, which can influence housing demand.

Mortgages

• The number of mortgages increased gradually, with an estimated 355,000 registrations at year-end, a +6% increase compared to 2020.
• This is close to the 2019 levels, indicating a return to pre-pandemic trends.

Impact of COVID-19

• The pandemic has affected market activity across Europe, making it difficult to compare previous data directly.
• The report acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the future impact of the virus on the real estate market.
• Due to the lack of recent comparable data, the insights provided are based on current observations and may change rapidly.

Regional Price Trends

• New-build prices varied across provinces in Q1 2020–Q1 2021, as shown in the chart titled "NEW BUILD PRICES VARIATION BY PROVINCE.Q12020-Q12021".
• While prices stabilized nationally, regional differences suggest varying market dynamics.

Buyers' Behavior

• National buyers: Increased by +90% in Q1 2021 compared to +88% in Q1 2020.
• International buyers: Europeans remain the main group, with French, German, and Belgian buyers leading the market.

Contact Information

Carlos Zamora

• Position: Partner, Head of Residential
• Phone: +34 600 919 041
• Email: Carlos.Zamora@es.knightfrank.com

Rosa Uriol

• Position: Head of Research
• Phone: +34 600 919 114
• Email: Rosa.Uriol@es.knightfrank.com

Recent Publications

• Residential Investment Survey 2020
• Global Residential Cities Q1 2021

Report Source

• Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services, and forecasting for a range of clients, including developers, investors, and public sector entities.
• Reports are available at:
  • Spanish: knightfrank.es
  • English: knightfrank.com/research

Disclaimer

• This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon for decision-making.
• No liability is accepted for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this document.
• Reproduction of the report is not permitted without prior written approval from Knight Frank España, S.A.U.