2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Towards_the_Right_Policy_Mix_for_a_Thriving_European_Capital_Market_13页_1mb

Summary of the 2016 ECMI Annual Conference

Core Content

The 2016 European Capital Markets Institute (ECMI) Annual Conference focused on the challenges and opportunities for creating a thriving European capital market. It addressed the impact of negative interest rates, the need for market-based solutions to bank restructuring, the reshaping of governance structures, and the role of new technologies such as blockchain in the future of capital markets.

Main Sessions and Key Points

1. Impact of Negative Interest Rates on Europe's Financial System

• Negative interest rates (NIRP) have had a strong impact on financial conditions, particularly on borrowing costs.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is monitoring the effects of monetary policy on the banking system, noting that banks are more resilient but not sufficiently profitable.
• Long-term low interest rates are driven by demographic factors and secular trends, leading to challenges such as balance sheet constraints and asset bubbles.
• Repo rates have increased market volatility, and the lending channel of monetary policy may have positive effects if sticky deposits are managed effectively.
• There is debate on whether the ECB should target GDP deflator rather than CPI inflation, and whether NIRP should be replaced by shorter, more targeted periods.
• Fiscal policy may play a greater role in long-term stabilization, especially in the context of liquidity traps.

2. Market-Based Solutions to Bank Restructuring

• Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain a significant challenge in the EU, with over EUR 1 trillion in gross NPLs by mid-2016.
• National NPL ratios vary, with some countries (e.g., Cyprus, Greece) having particularly high levels.
• Secondary markets for NPLs need to be developed further, with transparency, legal reforms, and supervisory coordination being critical.
• Asset management companies (AMCs) and securitisation are seen as potential tools, though they face legal and regulatory hurdles.
• Private sector solutions may not be sufficient, and pragmatic interpretations of regulations (e.g., BRRD and State Aid rules) could allow for limited public sector involvement.

3. Reshaping the Governance of Europe's Capital Markets

• Enforcement and supervisory convergence are identified as key challenges for the development of a unified capital market.
• ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) is seen as a critical player in improving market supervision, but needs more harmonizing powers.
• National supervisors are important for understanding local markets, but cross-border frictions and home bias must be addressed.
• The Capital Markets Union (CMU) is considered essential to counterbalance the banking union and promote diversification of funding sources.
• A 4-peaks model for supervision is proposed, separating macro- and micro-stability, investor protection, and competition.
• The ECMI called for a more urgent and focused approach to CMU, with the mid-term review of the CMU Action Plan (scheduled for 2017) needing to be substantive, not just a formality.

4. Blockchain and Other New Technologies

• Blockchain and distributed ledger technology (DLT) are expected to transform market infrastructure, particularly in issuance, custody, and settlement.
• Fintech is playing an increasing role, but most companies are still not solving real business problems.
• Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to accommodate new technologies, including smart contracts, trade repositories, and regulatory sandboxes.
• The ECMI emphasized the need for more work on the economic and regulatory implications of these technologies.
• The winner of the call for papers was announced, showcasing the growing academic interest in capital markets issues.

Key Information

• The conference was hosted by the National Bank of Belgium and organized by the ECMI and the Brevan Howard Centre.
• Over 300 participants from across Europe attended, including academics, policy-makers, and market participants.
• The ECMI has taken steps to increase its academic engagement by launching a call for papers, resulting in the awarding of two prizes.
• The CMU Action Plan is seen as crucial for the future of European capital markets, with a mid-term review in 2017 expected to be a turning point.
• Negative interest rates have had mixed effects, with potential negative impacts on the banking sector and the real economy.
• Supervisory convergence and uniform application of rules are necessary to ensure a level playing field and effective market supervision.
• Technological innovation is expected to play a growing role in capital markets infrastructure, but regulatory adaptation is essential.

Conclusion

The conference highlighted the need for a policy mix that includes monetary, fiscal, and structural reforms, as well as technological innovation and effective supervision, to create a thriving European capital market. While progress is being made, bold actions and greater coordination are required to overcome existing barriers and inefficiencies.