CBInsights-2019汽车和移动趋势报告（英文）-2018.12-61页-6mb

Auto & Mobility Trends in 2019 Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the NExTT framework for analyzing auto and mobility trends, categorizing them into Necessary, Experimental, Threatening, and Transitory based on industry adoption (y-axis) and market strength (x-axis). It highlights key trends across the automotive industry and their implications for future development and business models.

Main Trends and Key Information

Necessary Trends (Widespread Adoption)

• Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

  • MaaS offers on-demand transportation solutions, reducing the need for personal vehicle ownership.
  • It includes ride-hailing, car-sharing, bike-sharing, and public transportation integration.
  • Companies like General Motors, Ford, BMW, and Daimler are investing in MaaS, creating services such as car-sharing (Car2Go, Drivenow), ride-hailing (myTaxi, Chauffeur Privé), and parking solutions.
  • Ride-hailing giants (Uber, Lyft, Didi Chuxing) and startups are expanding into MaaS, with Ford acquiring Spin in November 2018.
  • Car subscriptions are gaining traction as an alternative to traditional ownership, offering flexibility and bundled costs.
  • Automakers like BMW and Volvo are using telematics data to inform insurance plans and provide third-party services with vehicle data.

• Electric Vehicles (EVs)

  • EVs are seen as critical to the future of the automotive industry, with Volkswagen investing $50B in EV development and planning to stop gas-powered car production by 2026.
  • Most automakers have at least one fully electric model in development.
  • The cost of lithium-ion batteries is decreasing due to manufacturing advancements, scaled production, and material science improvements, making EVs more affordable.
  • Investors have poured over $5.5B into EV startups in 2018, signaling strong market confidence.
  • Automakers and Tier-1 suppliers are heavily investing in EV-related technologies, with mentions of electrification surpassing those of autonomy and connectivity.

• Telematics

  • Telematics enables real-time fleet monitoring and data collection, offering significant cost savings and safety improvements.
  • It is used by fleet operators, rental car companies, and insurance firms to track location, fuel levels, and driver behavior.
  • Telematics presents a $1.5T monetization opportunity for automakers by 2030, as new car sales decline with the rise of shared mobility.
  • GM, Volvo, and BMW are leveraging telematics data for insurance and third-party services.

• Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)

  • ADAS is a key focus for automakers and Tier-1 suppliers to improve driver safety and reduce human error.
  • These systems include adaptive cruise control, automatic braking, and lane departure warnings.
  • Some automakers, like Toyota, prioritize driver augmentation over full autonomy, aiming to create vehicles "incapable of causing a crash."
  • Sensor fusion is essential for combining data from cameras, radar, and lidar to improve detection accuracy and enable semi-autonomous driving.

Experimental Trends (Early Stage and Conceptual)

• Auto E-commerce

  • The auto industry is exploring online car buying through platforms like Yiche and Autohome in China.
  • Carvana in the US has pioneered online car sales, offering virtual tours, 360-degree photos, and direct sales.
  • Automakers are partnering with e-commerce platforms like Alibaba to enhance online presence and virtual showrooms.

• Simulation

  • Simulation platforms are helping autonomous vehicle (AV) developers reduce the time and cost of real-world testing.
  • NVIDIA's DRIVE Constellation is a leading cloud-based simulation platform that generates billions of miles of customized scenarios.
  • Audi has partnered with Cognata to simulate real-world conditions and speed up AV development.

• Wearables

  • Wearable technology is being tested in factories to augment human workers and improve productivity.
  • Exoskeletons are being used by Ford and BMW to reduce strain and injury during repetitive tasks.
  • Smart glasses and smart watches are being deployed to assist workers with training and real-time information.
  • GM is testing Google Glass for assembly line training, and BMW uses data glasses and smart watches for logistics support.

Threatening Trends (High Market Potential)

• Fully Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
  • AVs are expected to have a large addressable market and are being embraced by early adopters.
  • They could significantly disrupt the traditional auto OEM business model by reducing the need for personal vehicle ownership.
  • Lidar is a critical component for AV development, but its high cost and limited adoption pose challenges.
  • HD mapping is also a key enabler for AVs, providing accurate and detailed road data.
  • Flexible assembly lines are becoming more important as vehicle designs evolve, requiring more adaptable manufacturing processes.
  • Online aftermarket parts could challenge traditional dealership models, offering consumers more options and lower costs.

Transitory Trends (Uncertain Market Adoption)

• 3D Printing

  • 3D printing is seen as a transitory trend with potential for customization and cost reduction in manufacturing.
  • It allows for rapid prototyping and on-demand production, but its adoption is still limited and uncertain.

• Next Generation Infotainment

  • New infotainment systems are being developed to offer enhanced user experiences and connected features.
  • These systems are still in the early stages of development and adoption.

• Digital Dealerships

  • The shift to digital sales channels is beginning, with automakers exploring online platforms and virtual showrooms.
  • This trend is still evolving and faces challenges in consumer acceptance and integration with traditional sales models.

Key Insights

• The NExTT framework helps identify and prioritize trends based on their market potential and industry adoption.
• Mobility-as-a-Service and electric vehicles are the most necessary trends, with significant industry and consumer adoption.
• Telematics and ADAS are critical for safety, efficiency, and future revenue streams.
• Simulation and wearables are experimental but show early promise and are being tested by automakers.
• Fully autonomous vehicles, HD mapping, and flexible assembly lines are threatening due to their high market potential and investment activity.
• 3D printing, next-gen infotainment, and digital dealerships are transitory and may reveal new opportunities as they become better understood.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by technological innovation and changing consumer behavior. Trends like MaaS and EVs are essential for future growth, while simulation and wearables are exploring new frontiers. The shift toward connected vehicles and autonomous systems is redefining business models, manufacturing processes, and customer engagement. Automakers are strategically investing in these areas to stay competitive and adapt to the evolving landscape.