CBInsights-2019区块链发展趋势报告（英文）-2018.12-47页-5mb

报告摘要

Summary of "What's Next In Blockchain" (2019)

Core Content

This document outlines the NExTT framework, which categorizes blockchain-related trends into four quadrants based on Industry Adoption and Market Strength. The framework helps identify which trends are essential, experimental, transitory, or threatening to the traditional financial system.

Main Trends and Key Points

NExTT Framework Overview

NExTT stands for Necessary, Experimental, Transitory, and Threatening.
The framework uses Industry Adoption (y-axis) and Market Strength (x-axis) to classify trends.
Trends in the Necessary quadrant are well-established and have clear market opportunities.
Trends in the Threatening quadrant are showing high market potential and may disrupt traditional systems.
Transitory trends are in the early stages of adoption and have uncertain market viability.
Experimental trends are still in the conceptual or early product stage.

Necessary Trends

Fiat-Crypto Exchanges

These exchanges allow users to trade fiat currencies for cryptocurrencies.
They act as "on-ramps" for crypto, enabling broader access to the market.
Coinbase is a leading example in the US, with significant venture funding.
Despite revenue declines due to reduced speculative trading, exchanges are expanding with new products and services.
Challenges: Competition from traditional financial firms (e.g., CBOE, ICE) and the need for a sustainable business model.

Custody

Financial institutions must develop secure ways to hold and manage cryptoassets.
Custody is a critical barrier to mainstream adoption.
Solutions: Cold storage, such as Xapo, which uses secure physical locations.
Fidelity is moving into this space, signaling growing interest from traditional players.
Challenges: Legal and regulatory hurdles, and the need for trusted infrastructure.

Experimental Trends

Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs)

DEXs aim to eliminate centralized intermediaries by using blockchain technology.
0x is a notable protocol for building DEXs.
Regulatory Challenges: The SEC has raised concerns about unregistered securities exchanges, as seen with EtherDelta.
Uncertainty: DEXs may require legal clarity and compliance with existing regulations before becoming mainstream.

Consortia

Consortia bring together competitors to collaborate on DLT projects.
R3, Hyperledger, and the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance are prominent examples.
Challenges: Legal complexities, integration with existing systems, and resistance from stakeholders.
Success: IBM's Hyperledger Fabric has found use in supply chain management, showing promise in specific industries.

Transitory Trends

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)

ICOs were a major fundraising method in the early days of blockchain.
Market Adoption: Declining due to market saturation and regulatory scrutiny.
Future: May evolve into more structured fundraising mechanisms.

Smart Contract Platforms

Platforms like Ethereum enable the creation of self-executing contracts.
These platforms are foundational to many blockchain applications.
Challenges: Scalability, security, and regulatory uncertainty.

Threatening Trends

Stablecoins

Designed to reduce volatility, stablecoins are backed by fiat, commodities, or algorithms.
Tether (USDT) is the largest stablecoin, with a market cap of $1.7B.
Potential: Could enable broader use of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange.
Challenges: Trust issues, regulatory scrutiny, and limited use beyond trading.

Data Marketplaces

Blockchain can enable secure, decentralized data sharing for AI applications.
Features: Transparency, security, and user control over data.
Use Cases: Personal data monetization, business data exchange, and sensor data sharing.
Benefits: Could automate data partnerships and reduce leakage.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs)

DAOs are organizations run by code, without traditional ownership or management.
The DAO (2016) was an early attempt, but faced a major hack.
Current Development: Blockchain projects are exploring digital incorporation and self-governance.
Potential: Could redefine corporate structures and enable borderless legal systems.

Identity Management

Blockchain can allow users to control their digital identities, reducing reliance on centralized platforms.
Ideal Identity Management: Personal, persistent, portable, and private.
Challenges: Resistance from governments and institutions that rely on traditional ID systems.
Current Systems: Social security numbers, birth certificates, and online accounts remain dominant but increasingly insecure.

Key Information

Market Dynamics: The blockchain industry is evolving rapidly, with trends shifting between categories.
Regulatory Environment: Plays a crucial role in shaping the future of blockchain, especially for DEXs and security tokens.
Technological Innovation: Smart contracts, DLT, and NFTs are driving new applications and business models.
Adoption Barriers: Security, regulation, and technical challenges are slowing mainstream adoption.
Future Outlook: The industry may see a shift toward more stable and regulated ecosystems, with traditional players entering the space.

Conclusion

The blockchain landscape is diverse and dynamic, with different trends at varying stages of development. The NExTT framework provides a useful lens for understanding which trends are most promising and which may fade. As the industry matures, the balance between innovation and regulation will be key to long-term success.

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