20250627-大越期货-PVC期货早报_25页_1mb

PVC期货早报Summary (June 27, 2025)

• Supply: PVC production in May 2025 at 201.9692 million tons, up 3.31%环比, capacity utilization slightly down. Expected reduction in maintenance and slight increase in production, easing supply pressure but next-week outlook may change.

• Demand: Downstream utilization rates low (44.31% overall), below historical averages, particularly in 型材 (36.25%), 管材 (40.13%), so demand remains weak despite slightly better 薄膜 (72.78%).

• Cost: Electric石 method incurs losses (-493.98 yuan/ton), ethylene method deeper losses (-640.42 yuan/ton)环比. Cost differentials show electric石 slightly better.

• Market View: Short-term bullish due to MA20 upward and 09 contract above it; neutral inventory levels. Main positions net short with short positions increasing, signal bearishness.

• Price Range: PVC2509 expected in 4839-4905 yuan/ton.

• Risks: Weak demand recovery, policy effectiveness on domestic needs, export competition, oil price fluctuations, and ongoing cost pressures from electric石 and ethylene methods.

Overall, market is cautious with neutral fundamentals, balancing potential supply easing against persistent demand weakness.