20220121-招银国际-华润万象生活-01209.HK-MixC_s_acquisition_of_Zhongnan_PM_will_boost_managed_GFA_by_53.5__and_net_profit_by_11__6页_966kb

报告摘要

CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary

Core Content

Company: CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK)
Event: MixC announced the acquisition of Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction's PM arm on 20 Jan.
Key Impact: The acquisition is expected to boost MixC's contracted GFA by 53.5%, managed GFA by 41.5%, and net profit by 11% based on 2021E estimates. This is significantly higher than the impact from Yujia, which is estimated at 18.6%/16.5%/6% for the same metrics.

Quantitative Impact

Managed GFA: 51.5mn sq m (confirmed) and an expected 90mn sq m within 5 years.
Payment Schedule: 44% upfront, with the remaining paid based on delivery progress.
Valuation: Estimated at 13x 2021E PE, higher than Yujia's 11x and many smaller players at ~8x.
Target Price: HK$56.00 (Maintain BUY rating).
Current Price: HK$40.10.
Upside Potential: +39.7% from current price to target.

Qualitative Impact

Focus of Zhongnan PM: Primarily on residential PM in the Yangtze River Delta, with 85% of 2020 revenue from this segment.
Synergy Concerns: Non-owner VAS accounts for 35.2% of revenue, but there is uncertainty about its transferability to MixC due to its strong ties to Zhongnan Construction.
MixC's Focus: Heavy emphasis on commercial operations, which may not align with Zhongnan PM's residential focus.

Implications for Zhongnan Construction

2021 Contracted Sales: Declined 12% to RMB19.7bn.
Liquidity Issues: Four offshore bonds trading at bid price 30, indicating potential liquidity concerns.
Debt Coverage: The acquisition can fully cover Zhongnan's US$223mn debt in 2022.

Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Metric	FY18A (RMB mn)	FY19A (RMB mn)	FY20A (RMB mn)	FY21E (RMB mn)	FY22E (RMB mn)
Revenue	4,432	5,868	6,779	8,984	11,957
Net Income	423	365	818	1,580	2,115
EPS	N.A.	N.A.	0.49	0.68	0.93
P/E (x)	N.A.	N.A.	54.9	38.5	28.8
P/B (x)	N.A.	N.A.	4.9	4.4	4.0
Net Profit Growth	42.8%	33.8%	-	-	-
ROE (%)	63.4	35.4	6.6	11.3	14.1

Key Ratios

Metric	FY18A (%)	FY19A (%)	FY20A (%)	FY21E (%)	FY22E (%)
Gross Margin	15.0	16.1	27.0	32.4	32.5
Net Margin	9.5	6.2	12.1	17.6	17.7
ROE	63.4	35.4	6.6	11.3	14.1
ROA	7.4	5.1	4.3	7.5	8.8

Company Overview

Market Cap: HK$91,528 million.
Shareholding Structure: CR Land & CR Holdings (73.7%), Free float (26.3%).
Share Performance (3 months): -9.3% absolute, -3.1% relative.
12-Month Price Performance: -15.1% absolute, +4.3% relative.
Auditor: Ernst & Young.

Strategic Acquisition

Zhongnan PM's GFA Contribution: Expected to be 90mn sq m within 5 years, with an average of 10mn sq m delivered annually.
Potential Synergy: Non-owner VAS is a key revenue source, but its transferability to MixC is uncertain.
Valuation: 13x 2021E PE, which is higher than the industry average.

Financial Summary

Operating Cash Flow: Projected to increase from FY20A to FY22E.
Net Cash from Financing: Expected to increase from FY20A to FY22E.
Net Change in Cash: Projected to increase from FY20A to FY22E.

Industry Comparison (Figure 7)

Company	CMBI Rating	Target Price (HK$)	Last Price (HK$)	Market Cap (HK$ mn)	P/E (20A)	P/E (21E)	P/E (22E)	Net Profit Growth (21E)	Net Profit Growth (22E)
Country Garden Services	BUY	91.2	49.1	165,274	48.6	49.6	35.7	65.7%	43.7%
CR Mixc Lifestyle	BUY	56.0	40.1	91,528	75.6	42.7	27.1	52.6%	38.9%
A-Living	HOLD	34.2	15.5	22,067	9.9	7.2	5.7	36.4%	26.6%
Greentown Services	HOLD	9.5	8.5	27,423	37.0	23.8	18.2	55.4%	30.7%
Ever Sunshine	BUY	22.2	14.4	25,186	56.7	30.9	21.1	47.3%	48.5%
Poly Services	HOLD	53.4	62.8	34,749	45.8	32.4	25.2	41.3%	28.4%
S-Enjoy	BUY	34.6	14.4	12,530	23.3	14.8	10.5	57.1%	41.7%
Powerlong Commercial	BUY	33.2	16.4	10,531	30.6	14.9	9.3	105.3%	60.6%
Excellence CM	BUY	14.9	4.9	5,929	15.8	10.1	7.1	54.0%	52.5%
Central China New Life	BUY	12.9	5.3	6,675	12.2	6.8	3.8	80.8%	77.1%
Sino-Ocean Services	BUY	7.1	4.4	5,233	11.6	10.4	7.1	11.6%	46.0%
New Hope Services	BUY	4.4	2.3	1,848	18.6	9.1	6.0	66.9%	42.2%
Redsun Services	BUY	9.4	4.0	8,008	17.6	9.1	6.0	104.9%	51.1%
Aoyuan Healthy Life	NR	NA	2.7	1,925	6.9	4.1	2.9	66.9%	42.2%
Shimao Services	NR	NA	6.6	16,237	15.8	10.1	7.1	55.7%	43.7%
KWG Living	NR	NA	4.0	8,008	18.6	9.1	6.0	104.9%	51.1%

Key Figures

Total Issued Shares: 2,283 million.
Average 3-Month Turnover: HK$129.71 million.
52-Week High/Low: HK$55.25 / HK$30.30.
12-Month Price Performance: -15.1% absolute, +4.3% relative.

Financial Analysis

Revenue Growth: Steady increase from FY18A to FY22E.
Net Profit Growth: Significant growth from FY18A to FY22E.
Gross Margin: Increased from 15.0% to 32.5%.
Net Margin: Increased from 9.5% to 17.7%.
ROE: Increased from 63.4% to 14.1%.

CMBIS Ratings

BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIS.

Important Disclosures

Risk: Investing in securities involves risks.
Disclaimer: CMBIS does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
Liability: CMBIS is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense related to reliance on this report.
Distribution: Report is for the use of intended recipients only.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that all views expressed reflect personal views.
The analyst does not have financial interests in the companies covered.
CMBIS has investment banking relationships with the issuers in the past 12 months.

Regulatory Information

United Kingdom: Report is provided only to certain persons under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
United States: Report is for major US institutional investors only.
Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited, an Exempt Financial Adviser.

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