战略与国际研究中心-2015-Consensus-Statement-on-the-Nonproliferation-Treaty-Review-Conference_4页_174kb

CSIS European Trilateral Nuclear Dialogue Summary

Core Content

The CSIS European Trilateral Nuclear Dialogue was established in 2009 to enhance nuclear cooperation and understanding among the United States, France, and the United Kingdom (P3). The dialogue aimed to identify areas of consensus and produce policy statements to address nuclear challenges, particularly in the context of the 2015 NPT Review Conference. The consensus statement emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the cornerstone of global nuclear governance and highlights the need for continued efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and promote disarmament.

Main Views

The Value of the NPT

• The NPT has been effective in preventing nuclear proliferation and should be supported by all signatories.
• While some proliferation has occurred, it is much less than feared in the 1960s, and the treaty provides significant barriers for nonnuclear states.
• The nuclear arsenals of the P5 (U.S., Russia, UK, France, China) have been reduced, but China has not limited its nuclear growth and remains nontransparent.
• The P3's nuclear capabilities contribute to international stability, preventing aggression, and reducing incentives for nonnuclear allies to pursue nuclear weapons.
• The P3 condemns Russia's coercive use of nuclear weapons in diplomacy and exercises, urging it to cease such actions.

P3 Solidarity

• Despite differences with Russia and China, the P3 should maintain solidarity to uphold the NPT.
• There is frustration among some nonnuclear states regarding the slow pace of disarmament.
• The P3 believes the NPT must remain the essential framework for addressing nonproliferation concerns and rejects efforts to undermine its legitimacy.

The Case of Iran

• The Iran nuclear agreement is a major challenge for the nonproliferation regime.
• A formal agreement based on the "comprehensive framework" is supported, which must include verification mechanisms and punishment for violations.
• The P3 recognizes the difficulty of converting an "agreement in principle" into a binding document but urges the P5+1 to complete the process.
• A credible verification regime is essential to ensure the agreement's success and to prevent nuclear breakout.
• The P3 recommends that the P5+1 set a timeline for negotiations and that the P3 begin preparing for potential extensions.

Future Proliferation Implications

• The Iran agreement does not fully address long-term proliferation risks, especially regarding sensitive fuel cycle technologies.
• There is a risk that other states may seek to develop nuclear capabilities similar to Iran's.
• The P3 urges consultations among P5 nations to counter proliferation and reinforce the NPT.

Key Participants

United States

• Barry Blechman (Cofounder/Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center)
• Linton Brooks (Former Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration)
• Franklin Miller (Senior Adviser, CSIS)
• Clark Murdock (Senior Adviser, CSIS)
• Robert Nurick (Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council)
• Kori Schake (Research Fellow, Hoover Institution)
• Walt Slocombe (Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy)

Great Britain

• Gordon Barrass (Visiting Professor, LSE Ideas)
• Desmond Bowen (Former MoD Policy Director)
• Sir Tony Brenton (Fellow, Wolfson College)
• Malcolm Chalmers (Research Director, RUSI)
• Lady Caroline Dalmeny (Associate Fellow, RUSI)
• David Jarvis (Director, UK PONI)
• Tom Mckane (Visiting Senior Fellow, LSE Ideas)
• Sir David Omand (Visiting Professor, King's College London)
• Paul Schulte (Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
• Sir Kevin Tebbit (Visiting Professor, Queen Mary, University of London)

France

• Benoit d'Aboville (Vice President, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique)
• Corentin Brustlein (Research Fellow, IFRI)
• Simond de Galbert (Visiting Fellow, CSIS)
• Camille Grand (Director, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique)
• Emmanuelle Maitre (Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique)
• Bruno Racine (President, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique)
• Bruno Tertrais (Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique)

Conclusion

The consensus statement underscores the importance of maintaining the NPT, reinforcing strategic stability, and addressing proliferation risks through cooperative efforts. It calls for P3 solidarity, effective verification mechanisms, and renewed international engagement to strengthen the nonproliferation regime and ensure global security.