大西洋理事会-美国、加拿大和矿产挑战（英）-2022.3-20页_3mb

Summary of "The United States, Canada, and the Minerals Challenge"

Core Content

This report outlines the critical role of minerals in the global transition to a net-zero energy system and highlights the challenges and opportunities for the United States and Canada in managing these mineral supply chains. It emphasizes the need for collaboration between the two nations to ensure a secure, sustainable, and transparent supply of transition minerals, which are essential for clean energy technologies like electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaics, and wind power.

Main Points

• Mineral Intensity of Net-Zero Transition:
  A net-zero energy system is expected to be six times more mineral-intensive than the current hydrocarbon-based system. This surge in demand is projected to be four to six times higher by 2040, depending on the ambition level of the global net-zero target.

• Investment Gap:
  There is a significant projected investment gap of $2 trillion over the next 15 years to meet the mineral needs of a two-degree Celsius climate target. Current supply chains are underdeveloped and undercapitalized, making them vulnerable to shocks and geopolitical interference.

• Geopolitical and Economic Risks:
  Transition minerals are highly concentrated in specific regions, with China controlling over 97% of rare earth elements and the Democratic Republic of the Congo controlling half of cobalt production. This concentration increases the risk of supply disruptions and geopolitical leverage, as seen in the 2010 China-Japan rare earths dispute and the current sanctions on Russian nickel.

• Current Supply Chain Vulnerabilities:
  Supply chains face challenges such as insufficient financing, poor governance, and price volatility. These issues are compounded by long lead times and the lack of transparency in the mineral value chain, which can undermine clean energy deployment and increase costs for consumers.

• Role of the U.S. and Canada:
  The U.S. and Canada are both significant consumers and participants in the mineral supply chain. Canada is a leading producer of nickel and has a developed midstream and downstream supply chain, while the U.S. is a major player in EV manufacturing but heavily reliant on imports for key minerals like cobalt, rare earths, and graphite.

• Sustainability Concerns:
  The environmental and social impacts of mineral extraction and processing are substantial. These include land degradation, water contamination, and health risks for local communities. The U.S. and Canada must address these concerns to maintain their leadership in clean energy and align with global sustainability goals.

• Need for Collaboration:
  The U.S. and Canada can leverage their shared history of cooperation to address the mineral supply challenges. This includes diversifying supply chains through localization, setting global resource governance standards via their integrated consumer market, and promoting sustainable practices in mineral production.

• Principles for Collaboration:

  • Risk Assessment: Understanding how to evaluate shared risks in the new energy security paradigm.
  • Public-Private Partnerships: Developing models that support both marketability and resilience in the supply chain.
  • Sustainable Mining: Defining and promoting sustainable mining practices to ensure that mineral extraction does not negate the carbon-reducing benefits of clean energy technologies.
  • Innovation and Recycling: Using their robust innovation ecosystems to close the mineral lifecycle through recycling and reduce mineral intensity.

Key Information

• Mineral Demand Growth:
  Transition minerals are expected to grow fourfold by 2040 to meet the Paris Agreement's "well below 2°C" target, and sixfold under a net-zero by 2050 scenario.

• Supply Chain Deficits:
  The global supply of certain minerals, such as graphite, is projected to face a 20,000-metric-ton deficit in 2022, equivalent to the materials needed for 250,000 EV batteries.

• Import Dependency:
  The U.S. is highly import-dependent for transition minerals, importing nearly 50% of its nickel, over 75% of its cobalt, and all of its manganese and graphite in 2021.

• Economic and Employment Impacts:
  The shift to clean energy presents both economic opportunities and risks. The U.S. hydrocarbon sector employed nearly one million people in 2020, many of whom must be transitioned to clean energy jobs. In Canada, 600,000 people are employed in the oil and gas sector, with analysts predicting a decline of up to 75% by 2050.

• Sustainability and Governance:
  Ensuring that mineral supply chains are transparent, sustainable, and well-governed is crucial for maintaining the U.S. and Canada's leadership in the global clean energy transition and for securing investment in the sector.

Conclusion

The U.S. and Canada must act collaboratively to address the challenges of the transition mineral supply chain. By promoting sustainable practices, fostering public-private partnerships, and leveraging their combined economic and geographic strengths, they can secure their positions in a net-zero economy and contribute to global efforts to ensure a stable and ethical mineral supply for the clean energy transition.