2025-06-04-Bernstein-西卡公司（SIKA）_西卡公司_与首席执行官托马斯·哈斯勒炉边谈话的要点_23页_708kb

报告摘要

Growth Expectations:
- For FY2025, FCFF margin is expected to improve due to ongoing synergies from the MBCC integration.
- Organic growth is targeted to reach 5-6% by 2026 as underlying markets recover positively. Past growth was largely pricing-driven (2022-2023), medium-term growth will reflect genuine market recovery.
Regional Performance:
- Europe shows improving sentiment due to German stimulus; infrastructure spending likely to peak in later years.
- U.S. has slowed due to uncertain tariff news; ongoing discount pressures.
- Emerging markets exhibit strong growth, but China continues to face challenges.
Pricing and Costs:
- The 2025 price guidance (0.5-1%) is expected to be met at the higher end due to inflationary pressures and fixed cost absorption.
- Wage inflation remains within 2.5-3%, while raw material prices have stabilized.
Strategic Moves:
- M&A activities are ramping up; pipeline is full, with bolt-on acquisitions expected to enhance growth and market share.
- Focus on sustainability (materials needed to meet circularity and net zero goals) and circularity initiatives (plastic waste in construction) to maintain competitive edge.
Outlook for 2025:
- Despite geopolitical headwinds, management remains confident in achieving strong organic growth driven by the robust underlying demand in construction and mobility. Continued investment and integration of MBCC provide significant synergistic value.

Rating: Outperform (timestamp: 04 Jun 2025)
Price Target: CHF 285 (current share price: CHF 217.70; upside: 31%)
Marginality:
- EBIT margin target is 19.5-19.8% for 2025, going as high as 20% by 2026.
- DCF-based valuation supports CHF 285 target with a WACC of 7.8% and terminal growth of 3.5%.
Potential Risks:
- Tariff escalation and geopolitical tensions.
- Slowdown in volume-driven markets (China, Europe).
- Labor negotiations affecting wages.

Financials (CHF)	2024A	2025E	2026E
Revenues (M)	11,763	12,266	13,008
EBIT (M)	1,714	1,840	2,051
EPS (CHF)	7.76	8.15	9.32
Target Px (CHF)	285	-	-

Integration with MBCC nearly completed, expected to drive significant value creation.
Analyst views positive on Sika’s growth prospects driven by:
- Leadership in sustainable construction chemicals.
- Expansion in high-growth markets like Africa and Middle East.
- Potential bolt-on acquisitions.

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