2025-05-22-Jefferies-Dexco（DXCO3）_邀请_与Dexco首席执行官的炉边谈话_9页_188kb

Dexco (DXCO3 BZ) - Equity Research Summary

Key Points:

1. Company Description & Transformation

• Dexco is an integrated manufacturing company (originally wood panels, sanitaryware, metals) that has transformed by entering the dissolving wood pulp segment via a joint venture (JV) with Lenzing (LD Celulose), now a significant profit driver (25% EBITDA contribution).
• Company operates >200k hectares of land, providing strong asset backing and a positive carbon balance.

2. Valuation & Ratings

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: R$10.00 (up from previous target of R$5.40) with a ~85% upside from last close.
• Valuation based on a 15% discount to estimated NAV/SOTP, trading at a 54% discount to the sum-of-the-parts valuation (R$11.7 per share).
• Key Risks: Complexity of conglomerate structure, cyclicity in earnings (building materials sales), high sensitivity to interest rate cycles, and operational challenges in the ceramics/Deca segment.

3. Business Divisions/Segments

A. Wood Panels

• Competitive edge from integrated forestry (owns ~200k hectares), partially insulated from rising wood prices.
• Business commands premium margins vs. sector average (40%), with strong asset and carbon balance.

B. DWP Segment (Dissolving Wood Pulp JV with Lenzing)

• JV producing >565kt annually vs. initial 500kt target.
• Key investment: $1.4bn by Dexco (49%) & Lenzing ($650m bond + $60m loan).
• Expected EBITDA c. R$1.25bn (R$1.6bn in 2024); to start paying dividends in 2026. Value of JV at R$3.0bn ($3.6/share).

C. Ceramics/Deca

• Recovery is on track (margins back to ~10%).
• Largest player in Brazil for sanitaryware/fixtures (40% market share).
• Restructuring: Focus shifted to new factory (Botucato), expected ~15-20% cost savings; R$700m invested in new tile plant.

D. Metals & Other

• Ceramics business historically overcapacity post-pandemic led to profitability issues; now recovery underway.

4. Market Position and Sensitivity

• High sensitivity to the interest cycle due to exposure in building and furniture sectors; current leverage (3.45x net debt/EBITDA) adds risk.
• Valuation is deemed “undemanding” for an asset-backed firm but underperformance risk exists due to conglomerate complexity and cyclic demand.

5. Upcoming Events

• Virtual Fireside Chat with CEO Raul Guaragna & Head of ESG on June 3, 2025 (10am ET).

6. Analyst Certification

• Headlined views from Pedro Baptista, Alejandro Anibal Demichelis, Cole Hathorn, and Francisco Barbosa.
• Disclosure: Analysts may have conflicts of interest given business relationships.

7. Event Calendar/Fireside Chat Schedule

• Includes upcoming Latin America fireside chats and key takeaways from previous ones.

Analyst View:

Jefferies rates Dexco as BUY, driven by exposure to growing demand in building materials, forestry integration’s defensiveness, and strong performance in wood pulp JV. Key risks relate to complex conglomerate structure and cyclic demand sensitivity.