2025-05-28-Jefferies-阿尔贝茨公司（AALB）_阿尔贝茨首席执行官炉边谈话反馈_9页_813kb

Aalberts CEO Fireside Chat Feedback Summary

Core Content

Aalberts, an industrial engineering company with €3.1bn in FY24 revenues, participated in a fireside chat as part of the Jefferies Structural Winners Virtual C-Suite Series 2025. The company is focused on mission-critical technologies in Building, Industry, and Semicon markets, with a strategic goal to achieve leading positions in eco-friendly buildings (51% of FY24 revenue), industry (33%), and semicon efficiency (16%). The company is based in the Netherlands, operates in over 50 countries, and has 51 manufacturing and 84 service locations.

Main Points and Key Information

Earnings Momentum and Performance

• FY25E Earnings: Aalberts is targeting stable organic revenues for FY25E, following a 3.2% decline in 1Q25.
• Segment Performance:
  • Building: Modest organic growth with positive performance in Benelux, the UK, Eastern Europe, and the US, partially offset by weak performance in France and Germany.
  • Industry: Expected to remain relatively weak for the remainder of FY25E, with some improvement in the second half.
  • Semicon: Uncertain outlook due to de-stocking and tariffs, with a 11% decline in 1Q25.
• EBITA Margin: EBITA margin was 13.6% in 1Q25, down 60bps from FY24, but expected to improve due to cost savings and higher-margin M&A in the Industry segment.
• Profitability: Aalberts aims for EBITA margin improvements from 15.0% in FY24 to 16–18% by FY26E, and >18% by FY30E under the Thrive 2030 strategy.

Valuation and Investment Outlook

• Valuation Discount: Shares are trading at a record 40% discount to peers, with a current EV/EBIT multiple of 10.0x FY25E, implying a 18% discount to peers.
• DCF Valuation: The DCF-based price target (PT) is €45.0, representing a 13.5x EV/EBIT multiple, more in line with peers.
• Price Target: The PT is €45.0, which is +46% above the current price of €30.90.
• Capital Allocation:
  • Capex is expected to increase to €250m–€300m annually from FY27E onwards.
  • M&A spend is forecasted at €200m–€250m annually, net of divestments.
  • Divestments are expected to be €400m–€500m (14% of FY24 revenues), leading to a more balanced segment mix by FY30E.
  • Excess cash will be used for share buybacks, with a projected net debt of 1.1x EBITDA in FY25E, well below the target of <2.5x.

Strategic Initiatives

• Portfolio Optimisation: Aalberts is targeting M&A with combined revenues of €800m–€1,000m by FY30E, adding 29% to FY24 revenues.
• M&A Progress: Two acquisitions in the US (Paulo and SGP) in the Industry segment, and a strong funnel in Semicon in Southeast Asia.
• Segment Focus:
  • Building: Focus on bolt-on M&A in the near term, with potential for larger M&A in the long term.
  • Industry: Recent M&A is expected to support margin improvements.
  • Semicon: Management will keep cost structures unchanged in anticipation of a return to growth next year.

Financial Performance and Cash Flow

• Net Profit: Projected to increase from €179.1m in FY24 to €279.5m in FY25E, with an EPS of €2.56 (+58%).
• Dividend: Expected to be €0.93 in FY25E, with a pay-out ratio of 30.0%.
• Free Cash Flow: Projected to increase in FY25E to €271.2m, with a free cash conversion ratio of 66.7%.
• Net Debt: Projected to be 1.1x EBITDA in FY25E, down from 1.1x in FY24, with further declines expected in subsequent years.

Conclusion

Aalberts is on track to improve earnings momentum and profitability in FY25E, driven by organic growth in Building and Industry, and strategic M&A. The company's valuation discount to peers is expected to narrow as it progresses towards its Thrive 2030 goals. With a strong focus on portfolio optimisation and capital allocation, Aalberts is positioned to deliver value through share buybacks and operational improvements.