2011年-世界发展银行全球_Mongolia_Quarterly_Economic_Update_January_2011_38页_2mb

报告摘要

Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update by the World Bank provides an analysis of recent economic and social developments, along with ongoing World Bank activities in the country. The report highlights the economic recovery since 2008, inflationary pressures, fiscal improvements, and challenges in the banking and labor sectors. It also discusses the implications of the 2011 budget, which is expected to have significant inflationary effects and may conflict with long-term fiscal stability goals.

Main Points and Key Findings

Economic Recovery

Economic Recovery: The economy has continued to recover, with most sectors showing strong growth in 2010.
- Real GDP growth reached 6.1% year-on-year in 2010, following a -1.3% contraction in 2009.
- The recovery is broad-based, extending beyond the mining sector, with growth in wholesale and retail trade, construction, manufacturing, and transportation.
Agriculture Impact: The agriculture sector remains weak due to the dzud (severe winter) of late 2009, which caused 17% year-on-year decline in output and 39% drop in cashmere exports.
Industrial Growth: Industrial production growth has slowed, particularly due to declining base effects from the 2008–2009 contraction.

Inflation

Inflation Trends: Consumer prices have continued to rise, with UB inflation reaching 14% yoy in December 2010.
Drivers of Inflation: Inflation is fueled by demand and supply pressures, including high meat prices from the dzud, rising food prices in China and Russia, and the expansionary fiscal policy in 2011.
Food Price Inflation: Food prices have surged, with meat and dairy prices increasing by over 20% yoy, and grain and vegetable prices also rising sharply due to global supply constraints.
Consumer Impact: Food accounts for 40% of the CPI basket in Ulaanbaatar, with the poorest households spending over 80% of their food budget on meat and dairy, and 36% on flour and bread.
Future Outlook: Inflation is expected to rise further in 2011 due to expansionary fiscal policy, potentially reaching 25% yoy in the first quarter.

Fiscal Developments

Fiscal Improvement: Public finances have improved significantly, with the fiscal balance turning positive in October 2010.
2011 Budget: The 2011 budget plans for a record high spending of MNT 4.0 trillion, or over half of GDP, leading to a fiscal deficit of 9.9% of GDP.
Budget Deviations: The 2011 budget deviates from the MTBF guidelines, with a larger deficit than the 5% ceiling set in the MTBF.
Fiscal Stability Law (FSL): The budget is pro-cyclical, going against the FSL's goal of transitioning to a cyclically-adjusted deficit of no more than 2% of GDP starting in 2013.

External Sector

Trade Deficit: The trade deficit has widened again, reaching US$ 379 million in December 2010, up from US$ 146 million in June 2010.
Import Drivers: Rising imports of fuel, transport equipment, and machinery due to Oyu Tolgoi construction and infrastructure projects.
Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit widened to 9.8% of GDP in the third quarter of 2010.

Banking Sector

NPLs: Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain high at 16% of total outstanding loans in December 2010.
Interest Rates: Real interest rates are falling, but MNT deposits are rising due to currency appreciation expectations and the deposit guarantee law.
USD Deposits: High USD deposit rates (up to 14%) reflect market risk perception.
Borrowing Trends: There is a significant increase in private overseas borrowing, which is unhedged and could expose borrowers to capital flow reversals.

Labor Markets and Poverty

Unemployment: Registered unemployment remained stable in the second half of 2010.
Informal Labor: The number of casual workers in informal labor markets dropped by 40% in December 2010, with real wages decreasing by 30%.
Poverty Impact: The poorest households are most affected by rising food prices, as food accounts for 40% of their consumption basket.
Public Services: The Ministry of Justice has initiated a program to improve legal awareness and access for minority populations.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1: Economic recovery is becoming more broad-based.
Figure 2: Industrial production is growing at a more subdued pace.
Figure 3: Inflation remains high, reflecting both demand and supply side pressures.
Figure 4: Meat exports by Mongolia.
Figure 5: International food prices have picked up.
Figure 6: Russia and Mongolia: grain, flour and bread prices.
Figure 7: China and Mongolia food prices.
Figure 8: Food expenditures by category for the median household below the poverty line.
Figure 9: Fiscal balances have improved strongly in recent months.
Figure 10: Revenues have risen strongly reflecting the recovery in commodity prices as well as domestic demand.
Figure 11: Revenues by type (as % of GDP).
Figure 12: Headline budget numbers as percent of GDP.
Figure 13: Annual increase in budget aggregates.
Figure 14: Real exchange rate and domestic price index.
Figure 15: Government spending.
Figure 16: Real value added by sector if expansionary budget passed.
Figure 17: Subsidies and transfers as % of aggregate expenditures.
Figure 18: Spending by type and level of government.
Figure 19: Efficiency of the public investment management system: scores and rankings for low and middle-income countries.
Figure 20: Efficiency of the public investment management system: scores by subcategory, selected economies.
Figure 21: The trade deficit has widened.
Figure 22: As transport and machinery equipment and fuel imports have increased.
Figure 23: Coal exports have performed strongly while copper and gold exports remain downbeat.
Figure 24: Commodity prices continue to rebound.
Figure 25: The current account deficit has widened as the economy has picked up.
Figure 26: And FDI inflows have increased substantially.
Figure 27: China is slowing as monetary tightening takes effect.
Figure 28: The expansion of import volumes has slowed alongside investment.
Figure 29: The exchange rate remains stable.
Figure 30: BoM international reserves are at record levels.
Figure 31: Real economy-wide interest rates continue to trend downwards as inflation rises.
Figure 32: MNT deposits reached a new peak in December while the stock of FX deposits has been relatively stable.
Figure 33: Total lending grows slowly.
Figure 34: ...while purchases of Central Bank bills reached record high.
Figure 35: NPLs continue to decrease, but slowly.
Figure 36: Yet loans to largest 50 borrowers account for roughly a third of total loans outstanding.
Figure 37: Highest NPL ratios are still in the construction and agriculture sectors.
Figure 38: But the levels of all sectoral NPLs worsened on a quarterly basis in 2010 Q3 except for wholesales.
Figure 39: Registered unemployment* has remained about the same in the second half.
Figure 40: Number of workers decreased in selected informal labor markets in UB.
Figure 41: Adequacy of wages relative to basic consumption needs.
Figure 42: Reasons for working in these markets.
Table 1: Aggregate indicators for the Budget Framework under the MTBF in comparison to 2011 budget (% of GDP).
Table 2: 2011 Budget compared with 2010 Budget and MTFF.
Table 3: Open Budget Index Scores: top performers.
Table 4: Driver of change of major export commodities between December 2009 and December 2010.
Table 5: Mongolia: Key Indicators.

Boxes

Box 1: A Development Bank for Mongolia – outlines the principles for establishing a Development Bank, including funding from the Fiscal Stability Fund.
Box 2: Increasing Access to Justice in Mongolia through Public Education and Special Services for Minority Populations – highlights the Ministry of Justice's program to improve legal awareness and access to justice for minority groups.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

bn: Billion
BoM: Bank of Mongolia
CPI: Consumer Price Index
FX: Foreign currency
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
HDF: Human Development Fund
LC: Local currency
LHS: Left hand side
MFA: Mongolian Financial Association
mn: Million
MNT: Mongolian togrog
MoF: Ministry of Finance
mom: Month-on-month
mt: Metric ton
NPL: Non-performing loan
NSO: National Statistics Office
OT: Oyu Tolgoi
RHS: Right hand side
USD: United States Dollar
WPT: Windfall Profit Tax
yoy: Year-on-year
ytd: Year-to-date

Conclusion

The 2011 budget, while reflecting a strong fiscal recovery, is pro-cyclical and may intensify inflationary pressures. It lacks a transition path to the 2% cyclically-adjusted deficit target and may undermine long-term fiscal stability. The expansionary spending could lead to a wage-price spiral, real appreciation of the currency, and increased vulnerability to capital flow shocks. Additionally, food price inflation remains a major concern, especially for low-income households, who are highly dependent on food imports. The banking sector still faces NPL challenges, and public investment management needs improvement to ensure fiscal sustainability and economic stability.