2018年-普华永道全球_2018_UK_hotels_forecast_update_12页_1mb

UK Hotel Sector Forecast Summary (2018 and 2019)

Core Content

The UK hotel sector is facing a challenging outlook for 2018 and 2019, influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors. Despite a strong global economy, the UK's economic growth remains relatively weak due to ongoing Brexit-related uncertainties and a squeeze on real incomes. This environment is expected to limit the growth of both average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR), especially in London, which is experiencing a significant increase in new hotel supply.

Key Trends and Forecasts

London Forecast

• Occupancy: Expected to grow only slightly, from 82% in 2017 to 82% in 2018 and 82% in 2019.
• ADR: ADR is projected to rise from £148 in 2017 to £149 in 2018 and £151 in 2019.
• RevPAR: RevPAR is forecast to increase by 0.6% in 2018 to £122, and by 1.9% in 2019 to £124.
• Supply Spike: London is expected to see over 9,000 new rooms open in 2018, surpassing the 8,000 rooms opened during the 2012 Olympic year. This will likely dampen occupancy growth.
• Seasonal Challenges: The strong first-half performance in 2017 will create tough monthly comparisons until the end of July, followed by easier comparisons for the rest of the year.

Regional Forecast (Provinces)

• Occupancy: Projected to grow from 76% in 2017 to 77% in 2019.
• ADR: Expected to increase from £71 in 2017 to £72 in 2018 and £72 in 2019.
• RevPAR: Forecast to rise from £54 in 2017 to £55 in 2018 and £56 in 2019.
• Supply Growth: Above average supply growth is expected in 2018, with cities like Manchester, Edinburgh, Belfast, and Glasgow seeing new room openings. However, oversupply is more localized and could affect RevPAR.

Economic and Travel Backdrop

• UK Economic Growth: Estimated at 1.5% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019, with continued pressure on real income growth and household spending.
• Inbound Travel: The 2017 boost from the weak pound has started to fade, and business confidence for 2018 is declining. Security concerns in London and Manchester have led to cancellations and reduced bookings.
• Event Impact: Special events such as the Royal Wedding, Farnborough International Air Show, and various sporting and cultural events are expected to provide some uplift to demand in 2018.

Deals Outlook

• 2017 Deal Volume: £4.9 billion, up 34% from 2016, driven by portfolio sales and improved macroeconomic stability.
• 2018 Forecast: Deal volume is expected to reach £6.0 billion, a 22% increase from 2017, with a strong pipeline of portfolio deals.
• 2019 Forecast: A potential 25% decline in deal volume to around £4.5 billion, as investors become more cautious and focus on long-term, secure assets.
• Investor Shift: There is a shift from private equity (PE) groups to institutional investors, who prefer long-term, fixed-leased assets. Operating structures are also changing, with a rise in operator leases and franchising.

Conclusion

While the UK hotel sector is not expected to see strong growth in 2018 due to weak demand and a significant supply spike, there are still opportunities for growth, particularly in key regional cities and through special events. The outlook for 2019 is more positive, with stronger global economic growth expected to support improved performance metrics. However, the long-term impact of Brexit remains a key uncertainty.

Key Figures

• 2018 RevPAR Growth: 0.6% in London, 1.1% in the Regions
• 2019 RevPAR Growth: 1.9% in London, 1.4% in the Regions
• 2018 Deal Volume: £6.0 billion (up 22% from 2017)
• 2019 Deal Volume: £4.5 billion (down 25% from 2018)

References

• Econometric Forecasts: PwC February 2018
• Benchmarking Data: STR January 2018
• UK Inbound Survey: Highlights declining business confidence in 2018
• Special Events: Royal Wedding, Farnborough Air Show, European Sports Championships, Gymnastics World Cup, Terracotta Warriors Exhibition in Liverpool

Additional Research

• Women in Hospitality: PwC collaborated on research to assess the industry's readiness to achieve 33% female representation on boards and executive committees by 2020.
• Diversity Charter: A new Diversity in Hospitality, Travel and Leisure Charter has been developed, encouraging companies to sign up and improve inclusivity.

Contact Information

• David Trunkfield – UK Hospitality & Leisure Leader
• Samantha Ward – UK Hotels Leader
• Liz Hall – Hospitality & Leisure Head of Research
• Richard Snook – Economist
• Stephen Broome – Lead Hotels Consultant
• Philip Shepherd – Partner, Hospitality & Leisure

Disclaimer

This document is for general guidance and does not constitute professional advice. PwC does not accept any liability for actions taken based on the information provided.