2018年-普华永道全球_Aerospace_and_defense_year_in_review_and_2018_forecast_42页_2mb

Aerospace and Defense Industry Summary

Core Content

The aerospace and defense (A&D) industry experienced strong performance in 2017, marked by record profits and revenue growth. The industry's total revenue reached $728 billion, up 4% from 2016, while operating profit increased by 18% to $77 billion, surpassing the previous record set in 2014. This growth was driven by significant improvements in the top quartile companies, particularly Boeing, which achieved an operating profit of over $10 billion, regaining its status as the most profitable A&D company.

Main Points

• Industry Performance:

  • Total revenue increased by 4% to $728 billion in 2017.
  • Operating profit rose by 18% to $77 billion, with an operating margin improvement of 130 basis points to 10.6%.
  • Boeing led in both revenue and profit growth, with a $4.4 billion increase in operating profit.
  • GE Aviation and Rolls-Royce also showed significant profit improvements, with Rolls-Royce achieving a 2827% increase in profit.

• Market Trends:

  • The A&D industry outperformed the S&P 500 in total shareholder returns (TSR), with a 39.9% increase in 2017.
  • The TSR was driven by increased market expectations (16.5%), capital distribution (11.9%), and profit growth (11.5%).
  • Shareholder returns were influenced by Boeing's strong performance, especially in the commercial aerospace segment.

• Commercial Aerospace:

  • Boeing delivered 763 aircraft in 2017, breaking its previous record.
  • Airbus delivered 718 aircraft, achieving its 15th consecutive year of record production.
  • Total deliveries reached a record of 1,481 aircraft, with a backlog of 13,129 units, representing about seven years of production for Boeing and ten for Airbus.
  • Revenue passenger miles grew to 7.6%, the third consecutive year above 6%, reflecting strong demand for air travel.

• Defense Sector:

  • The defense industry saw accelerating revenue growth, with the DoD budget increasing by about 20% over two years.
  • The US is shifting its focus toward Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran due to evolving global security threats.
  • The industry is expected to continue strong revenue and profit growth in 2018.

Key Information

• Mergers and Acquisitions:

  • UTC acquired Rockwell Collins.
  • Northrop Grumman acquired Orbital ATK.
  • Boeing and Embraer were in talks for a potential M&A deal, though details were pending.
  • Airbus acquired a majority stake in the CSeries program, expected to close in 2018.

• Aircraft Development:

  • Boeing announced the 797 concept, a middle-market widebody aircraft, expected to launch in 2018.
  • Airbus is aiming for a 60 per month production rate for A320s by mid-2019 and 10 per month for A350 XWB by the end of 2018.
  • Embraer's 190-E2 received a type certificate in February 2018 and is expected to enter service in 2018.

• Regional Aircraft and Business Jets:

  • Airbus and Bombardier's deal on the CSeries program is expected to boost production and sales.
  • Business jet operations grew by 3.2% in 2017, the second best since 2010, but still below the 2007 peak by 9%.
  • Improved economic growth and US tax reform are expected to boost the business jet sector in 2018.

• Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS):

  • The FAA reported over one million drone registrations and 70,000 remote pilot certifications by January 2018.
  • The commercial UAS fleet is projected to grow from 111,000 in 2017 to 452,000 by 2022.
  • The FAA launched the LAANC system in 2017 to streamline drone operations in controlled airspace and is expanding its testing in 2018.

• Space-related Services:

  • SpaceX successfully landed a reused Falcon 9 rocket in April 2017, marking a significant milestone in cost-effective space travel.
  • Blue Origin secured contracts with Eutelsat, OneWeb, and mu Space Corp for future launches.
  • NASA continues to develop the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, with the first launch planned between 2021 and 2023.

2018 Forecast

• Aircraft Deliveries:

  • Boeing expects to deliver between 810 and 815 aircraft in 2018, a 6% increase.
  • Airbus forecasts around 800 deliveries, representing an 11% increase and its 17th consecutive year of record production.

• Operating Margin:

  • The industry is expected to show modest continued improvement in operating margin, likely staying above 10%.
  • No significant restructuring or impairment charges are anticipated, which could support margin growth.

• Long-term Outlook:

  • Boeing forecasts 41,000 deliveries over the next 20 years, valued at $6.1 trillion, based on 4.7% annual air traffic growth.
  • The majority of this growth is attributed to market expansion rather than aircraft replacement.
  • Low fuel prices are expected to support continued demand by keeping airline ticket prices affordable.

Conclusion

The aerospace and defense industry had a robust year in 2017, with record profits and strong shareholder returns. The commercial aerospace sector, in particular, showed impressive growth, driven by increased demand and a large backlog. The defense industry is also expected to maintain its momentum in 2018 due to rising global security concerns and increased defense spending. The sector continues to evolve with the integration of UAS and the development of new aircraft models, indicating a dynamic and promising future.