2022-01-16-牛津经济研究院-United_Kingdom_Mixed_news_on_the_growth_outlook_5页_225kb

Summary

• GDP Growth: November 2021 saw a strong GDP increase of 0.9% month-on-month, surpassing pre-pandemic levels primarily due to rebound in consumer-facing sectors. However, December is expected to have a notable decline, but Omicron's impact is predicted to be short-term, with recovery anticipated by early spring.

• Omicron Impact: The Omicron variant has disrupted labour supply through high isolation rates, contributing to economic weakness in social consumption sectors. Despite cautious consumer behavior, data suggests activity may stabilize quickly, with the UK GDP potentially reaching pre-pandemic levels in H1 2022.

• Population Projections: Updated ONS figures indicate lower birth rates and higher deaths, reducing natural population growth. Net immigration is assumed higher, but the 2050 population projection is lowered to 71.4m, reflecting Brexit adjustments and softer potential output growth.

• Inflation: November 2021 CPI inflation reached 5.1%, the highest in over ten years, likely driven by global goods price increases. It is forecast to rise further in December, with core inflation also accelerating.

• Upcoming Events: Key data releases include labour market indicators, average weekly earnings, and inflation figures in early January, with Retail Sales expected to drop moderately. Economic outlook themes focus on Omicron uncertainties and long-term recovery adjustments.