20260403-盈立证券-维亚生物-01873.HK-2025_Performance_Meets_Expectations,_Awaiting_Volume_Growth_in_CDMO_Business_6页_404kb

VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873.HK) Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of VIVA Biotech Holdings (1873.HK) based on its 2025 Annual Report and future earnings forecasts. The recommendation is Buy, with a target price of HKD 4.0 and an upside of 103% compared to the current market price. The report highlights the company's resilience in operations, growth in its CRO business, and the potential for recovery in its CDMO segment, along with the performance of its EFS investment portfolio.

Main Points

1. 2025 Performance Overview

• Total Revenue: CNY 1.729 billion, down 12.9% YoY.
• Gross Margin: 37.9%, up 3.3% YoY.
• Net Profit (attributable to shareholders): CNY 220 million, up 31.4% YoY.
• Adjusted Net Profit: CNY 335 million, up 6.6% YoY.
• Adjusted Net Margin: 19.4%, up 3.6% YoY.

2. 2025 Second Half Performance

• Revenue: CNY 898 million, down 10.7% YoY, but a 4.6% narrowing of the decline compared to 2025H1.
• Gross Margin: 35.2%, up 0.6% YoY.
• Net Profit (attributable to shareholders): CNY 98 million, up 94.0% YoY.
• Adjusted Net Profit: CNY 152 million, up 3.7% YoY.
• Adjusted Net Margin: 16.9%, up 2.3% YoY.

3. CRO Business Performance

• Revenue: CNY 849 million in 2025, up 4.7% YoY, representing 49.1% of total revenue.
• Gross Margin: 45.1%, up 1.1% YoY.
• 2025H2 Revenue: CNY 426 million, up 0.2% YoY, accounting for 47.4% of total revenue.
• Client Distribution:
  • Top 10 Clients: Accounted for 25.7% of CRO revenue.
  • Overseas Clients: Represented 84.5% of CRO revenue, up 1.3% YoY.
  • China-based Clients: Represented 15.5% of CRO revenue, up 27.7% YoY.
• Growth Drivers:
  • Increase in the number of independent targets by 247.
  • Increase in the number of protein structures by 16,169.
  • New molecular modalities (peptides, antibodies, XDC, PROTAC/molecular glue, etc.) accounted for 15.8% of CRO revenue, up 11.0% YoY.

4. CDMO Business Performance

• Revenue: CNY 881 million in 2025, down 25.1% YoY, representing 50.9% of total revenue.
• Gross Margin: 39.9%, up 1.3% YoY.
• 2025H2 Revenue: CNY 472 million, down 18.6% YoY but up 15.3% QoQ, accounting for 52.6% of total revenue.
• Client Distribution:
  • Served 920 clients in 2025.
  • Top 10 Clients: Accounted for 68.0% of CDMO revenue.
  • Client Retention Rate: 100.0%.
• Future Growth:
  • Two key new commercial projects are expected to launch in 2026 and 2027.
  • One project has completed PPQ batch delivery and is transitioning to commercial production.
  • The other is currently in PPQ production.
  • Current usable capacity is 860 cubic meters, sufficient to meet demand for the next two years.
  • Langhua is building 400 cubic meters of new capacity to support future volume growth.

5. EFS Investment Performance

• Investment Income:
  • CNY 84 million from exits of incubated companies.
  • CNY 151 million from fair value changes.
• Total Investment Value: CNY 1.575 billion, up 11.8% YoY.
• Number of Incubated Companies: 93, consistent with the previous year.
• Product Pipeline:
  • 231 assets in total.
  • 187 in preclinical stage.
  • 44 in clinical stage.
• Financing:
  • 13 incubated companies completed new rounds of financing.
  • Total financing exceeded USD 453 million.
• Future Prospects:
  • Several projects with potential exit opportunities are expected to generate cash proceeds and investment income in the coming years.

Earnings Forecast

Ratings

• Stock Rating: Buy (6-month time horizon)
• Company Long-term Rating: A (above industry average growth potential)
• Sector Rating: Overweight (industry fundamentals are favorable, and the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10%)

Key Risks

• Intensified Market Competition in the CRO/CDMO industry.
• Failure of AI technology development and adoption to meet expectations.
• Commercialization projects falling short of schedule.
• EFS business risks.
• Valuation recovery falling short of expectations.

Disclaimer

• This report is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
• The information and opinions are based on various assumptions and may vary significantly.
• The Company and its affiliates may hold positions in securities of mentioned companies and may trade them.
• No liability is accepted for any direct or indirect loss resulting from the use of this report.