EIA-短期能源展望（英文）-2018.3-47页-1mb

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Summary - March 2018

Core Content Overview

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the March 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), providing forecasts and analysis of energy markets and consumption trends. The report covers crude oil, natural gas, electricity, coal, and renewable energy, with a focus on price movements, production levels, and consumption patterns.

Global Liquid Fuels

• Crude Oil Prices:
  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $65 per barrel in February 2018, down $4/b from January. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $62/b in 2018 and 2019, compared to $54/b in 2017.
  • WTI crude oil prices are expected to average $4/b lower than Brent in both 2018 and 2019. The market expects June 2018 WTI prices to range from $51/b to $76/b at the 95% confidence level.
• U.S. Crude Oil Production:
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.3 million b/d in February 2018, up 230,000 b/d from January due to fewer well freeze-offs in the Permian and Bakken.
  • EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, a record high, and 11.3 million b/d in 2019.
• Global Inventories:
  • Global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.6 million b/d in 2017.
  • EIA forecasts global inventories to grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2018 and by 0.3 million b/d in 2019.

Natural Gas

• U.S. Natural Gas Production:
  • U.S. natural gas production averaged 73.6 Bcf/d in 2017, and is expected to reach 81.7 Bcf/d in 2018, a record high, and increase further to 82.7 Bcf/d in 2019.
• Henry Hub Spot Prices:
  • The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.66/MMBtu in February 2018, down $1.03/MMBtu from January due to warmer weather.
  • EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices to average $2.72/MMBtu in March 2018 and $3.07/MMBtu for the entire year of 2019.
• Market Expectations:
  • The market expects June 2018 Henry Hub prices to range from $2.16/MMBtu to $3.49/MMBtu at the 95% confidence level.
• Inventory Trends:
  • Natural gas inventory withdrawals for the four weeks ending February 23 were 53 Bcf below the five-year average, contributing to a more favorable supply outlook.

Electricity, Coal, Renewables, and Emissions

• Electricity Generation:
  • Natural gas is expected to account for 34% of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation in 2018 and 2019, up from 32% in 2017.
  • Coal's share of generation is forecast to fall to 29% in both 2018 and 2019, down from 30% in 2017.
  • Nuclear generation is expected to remain at 20% in 2018 and fall to 19% in 2019.
  • Nonhydropower renewables are expected to provide about 10% of electricity generation in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019.
  • Hydropower is projected to fall below 7% in both 2018 and 2019.
• Coal Production and Exports:
  • EIA forecasts coal production to decline by 5% to 736 million MMst in 2018 and increase by 1% to 745 MMst in 2019.
  • Coal exports are expected to decrease in both years, with metallurgical coal exports remaining at 55 MMst in 2018 and declining to 54 MMst in 2019.
  • Steam coal exports are projected to drop to 26 MMst in 2018 and 23 MMst in 2019.
• Renewable Energy:
  • Wind generation is expected to rise to 722,000 MWh/d in 2018 and 778,000 MWh/d in 2019.
  • Conventional hydropower is projected to generate 747,000 MWh/d in 2019, making it the first year that wind generation exceeds hydropower.
  • Solar electricity generation is forecast to increase from 211,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 246,000 MWh/d in 2018 and 294,000 MWh/d in 2019.
• CO2 Emissions:
  • Energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 1.0% in 2018 and 0.8% in 2019, influenced by weather, economic growth, and energy prices.

Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Review

• Crude Oil Prices:
  • Crude oil prices declined in February after seven months of increases. The Brent-WTI price spread narrowed to its lowest level in over six months, closing at $3.03/b.
• Price Volatility:
  • Crude oil price volatility increased in early February, with the VIX closing above the OVX for four consecutive days, a rare occurrence since 2008.
  • The correlation between WTI price changes and the S&P 500 index increased to over 0.3 in late February, indicating market interdependence.
• U.S. Crude Oil Exports:
  • U.S. crude oil exports reached over 2 million b/d in February 2018, the second-highest level since 2016.
  • Infrastructure developments along the U.S. Gulf Coast are expected to support higher export levels.

Notable Forecast Changes

• Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL):
  • EIA forecasts U.S. HGL consumption to increase by 50,000 b/d in 2018 and 60,000 b/d in 2019, driven by higher-than-expected ethane consumption and new petrochemical plants.

Conclusion

The STEO report highlights a trend of increasing U.S. production in both crude oil and natural gas, with expectations of continued growth in 2018 and 2019. Prices for both commodities are expected to remain relatively stable, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, weather conditions, and market volatility. The shift in electricity generation towards natural gas and renewables is evident, with coal's share declining due to reduced production and export demand. EIA's forecasts are based on comprehensive data and market analysis, reflecting a balanced outlook for the energy sector.