2024-11-10-兰德-全球灾难风险评估（英）_237页_6mb

Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), provides an assessment of global catastrophic and existential risks that could significantly harm or set back human civilization. The assessment focuses on six key threats: artificial intelligence (AI), asteroid and comet impacts, nuclear war, rapid and severe climate change, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes. The report is part of the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act (GCRMA) passed in 2022, which mandates a coordinated risk assessment for these threats to inform risk management strategies.

Main Points

Global Catastrophic Risk Overview

• Global catastrophic risks are those that could cause widespread harm or set back civilization.
• Existential risks are those that could result in human extinction.
• The GCRMA aims to reduce these risks through comprehensive assessment and management strategies.

Key Findings

• AI: The risk is highly uncertain and depends on human decisions about AI safety and use. AI can amplify existing risks like nuclear war, pandemics, and climate change.
• Asteroid or Comet Impact: Risk remains constant or may decrease due to early detection and deflection technologies. The likelihood of impact varies by object size, with small impactors occurring roughly every 100 years.
• Nuclear War: Risk is influenced by human decision-making and varies from negligible to over 80% for the 21st century. It could result in massive casualties and ecological damage.
• Climate Change: A 2.0°C temperature rise is likely and catastrophic on a regional scale, with a less than 1% chance of a 4.0°C rise. The risk is well-documented but with significant uncertainty in long-term projections.
• Severe Pandemics: Natural pandemics are expected to increase, but the risk of lab-induced or engineered pandemics is less understood. Pandemics can cause massive economic and social disruption.
• Supervolcanoes: Supereruptions are rare, with a return period of about 15,000 years. Their effects are well-understood regionally but less so globally due to limited data and monitoring.

Risk Trends

• Overall, global catastrophic risk is increasing due to human activities.
• For AI, the extent of risk change is highly uncertain.
• For asteroid and comet impacts, the risk is expected to remain constant or decrease.
• Nuclear war, climate change, and severe pandemics are likely to see increased risk in the next decade.

Key Risk Management Strategies

Recommendations

• Incorporate Comprehensive Risk Assessments: Integrate risk assessments into the management of global catastrophic and existential risks.
• Develop Coordinated Research Agendas: Expand federal research to reduce uncertainty and improve risk management capabilities.
• Plan Strategically: Create plans and strategies when risk assessments are supported by credible evidence.
• Promote International Collaboration: Encourage dialogue and cooperation among nations to address these global risks.
• Adapt to Uncertainty: Develop flexible strategies that account for unresolved uncertainties in risk management.

Key Information

• The report is conducted by the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) under contract with DHS.
• It draws on peer-reviewed and non-sensitive literature, with detailed methodologies in Appendix A.
• The findings are not necessarily reflective of official DHS or FEMA opinions.
• The report includes tables and figures that summarize key findings and illustrate the quality of evidence and geographic scope of each risk.
• It emphasizes the need for both prevention and mitigation strategies, as well as improved understanding and monitoring of these risks.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of proactive risk management for global catastrophic and existential threats. It highlights the growing risk from human activities and the need for robust, evidence-based strategies to safeguard human civilization. The findings suggest that while some risks may remain constant or decrease, others are on the rise, requiring immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate their potential impacts.