2025-06-08-花旗集团-亚太要点_2025年6月9日星期一_14页_492kb

Key Insights from Citi Research (Asia Pacific) - Monday, 09 June 2025

• US Equity Strategy: Citi lifted year-end 2025 S&P 500 target to 6300 based on marginal fundamental improvements and persistent valuation levels. Mid-2026 target of 6500 implies ~19.4% upside over 12 months. AI-driven growth and large-cap bullishness are key preferences.

• India Banks: RBI's frontloaded easing (50 bps repo cut and 100 bps CRR reduction) may see private banks' NIMs bottom in 2Q25, with CRR cut supporting NIMs by 6-8bps. Durable liquidity expected to reach INR 5-7 trillion.

• Market Highlights:

  • Shenzhen Mindray: Restated as top pick; trading at 21x FY25E P/E, AI-focused solutions drive growth. Investor Day scheduled for Jun 12.
  • Wiwynn: May-25 sales of NT$71.1bn (+187% YoY) beat Citi expectations, driven by AI servers. 2Q25E sales growth expected at >20%.
  • Cosmax: Forecast to beat earnings in 2Q25; target price raised to W$277,000; reiterate Buy.
  • BYD: Inventory stabilized; maintains Buy rating; focuses on domestic and export growth, with wholesaling target of 5.5mn FY25 units.

• Fund Flows: Weak US equity inflows ($5.4bn), but strong global flows ($2.9bn global + $4.3bn Japan). Funds lagged in US due to redemptions.

• Target Price/ Rating Changes:

  • Mindray (Hold): Reiterate top pick with NT$2,450 target price.
  • BYD (Buy): No change in rating, but inventory management key.
  • Others: CALB Group (Buy), ASCI (Suspended, prior Buy), and others; see summary in report for full list.

• Economic Focus:

  • India: Economic stance "Neutral" post-easing; downplayed rate pause risks. Core inflation likely remains subdued.
  • Thailand: CPI fell below expectations in May, delaying likely 25bps rate cut in Oct 2025.

Analyst Certification and Disclosures

• Ratings subject to Citi's equity rating definitions (Buy if ETR >=15% or >=25% for High Risk, Sell for negative ETR). Full disclosures in report, including conflicts of interest and disclaimers.