2024-09-09-PitchBook-按系列划分的VC回报_第四部分（英）_15页_836kb

报告摘要

This report analyzes U.S. venture capital (VC) returns across the venture lifecycle by series and industry sector (focusing on SaaS and Life Sciences).
A revised methodology uses aggregate equity instead of total deal size and includes adjusted failure rate calculation to better reflect risks.
Central thesis: Early-stage risks are higher but offer higher return potential compared to later stages.

Starting from seed to Series D+, failure rates (both in company count and dollar amount) decrease as startups mature.
- Seed stage: High failure risk, high return potential (Annualized Return: varies by sector).
Annualized returns decline across the venture lifecycle.
- Seed Stage > Series A > Series D+ > Series C and beyond (≈11.2%).
Early investments: Higher risk due to uncertainty; late-stage returns are lower due to higher fundraising needs and increased competitiveness, but less risky.
Uber example: Early investors had a MOIC of ~5,230x, while late-stage investors had only 1.2x.

Failure Rates: Lower than the overall U.S. market across all stages; Seed: 27.5% vs. 38.6% overall.
Return Characteristics:
- Annualized returns outperform the broader market except at the seed stage.
- Strong performance in Series A through Series D+.
Deals & Valuations: Robust activity even in a downturn; Series D+ valuations set historic highs.
Market Trends: AI-driven platforms are propelling deal values; Enterprise SaaS faces economic headwinds but supports operational efficiency.
PE Interest: Growing, offering potential exit channels for mature SaaS firms, though valuation gaps remain.

Failure Rates: Higher than in the overall market; especially prominent at the seed stage (failure probability ~42.3%).
Return Characteristics:
- Annualized returns are highest in seed stage (29.8%), declining by Series C+ to ~11.2%.
- High potential for outsize returns at early stages.
Trial Phases: Median post-money valuation rises significantly for preclinical phases.
Regulatory Factors: FTC scrutiny may impact M&A; acquisition prospects remain high for established pipeline players, especially biopharma and medtech.
Market Trends: Deal momentum growing in 2024; Valuations remain strong despite market downturns; Focus on pharma rollups and platform acquisitions.

Bifurcation of Companies: Great vs. mediocre firms show stark divergences in performance and fundraising success.
"Flight to Quality": Focus on strong companies; later-stage deals in public markets face severe valuation cuts.
Return Compression:
- High entry valuations limit upside returns.
- Bridge debt rounds and flat/down rounds complicate return trajectories.
Secondary Markets: Increased reliance on secondary transactions as an alternative exit strategy.

Returns are strongly stage-dependent; early-stage offers highest potential, but higher risk.
Current market conditions emphasize quality and selective investments due to liquidity constraints.
Valuation differences between sectors reflect distinct risk-return trade-offs.

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