【世界银行】重塑中亚城市，打造有弹性和低碳的未来-2025_65页_23mb

Summary of "Reimagining Central Asian Cities for a Resilient and Low-Carbon Future"

Core Content

This document presents the findings and recommendations of the Central Asia Regional Study on Resilient and Low-Carbon Cities (CARL-Cities), a comprehensive analysis of urbanization trends and climate challenges in Central Asia. The study focuses on five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and examines 48 medium to large cities, with five cities (Almaty, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Namangan, and Shakhrisabz) undergoing in-depth analysis.

The goal of the study is to reimagine urban development in Central Asia to create resilient and low-carbon cities, aligning with global climate goals and regional sustainability needs.

Main Findings

1. Urbanization Trends

• Central Asian cities are expanding rapidly, with 48 urban areas growing by an average of 36.3% between 1990 and 2020.
• Large urban areas grow faster than smaller ones in terms of both population and physical extent.
• Almost half of the urban land consumption in the region is attributed to large settlements.
• Population density in CA cities is generally low, with 25% of areas showing a reduction in density.
• Urban expansion patterns are often unsustainable, with 58% of areas following a "leapfrog" model and 39% showing fragmented development, leading to underused land and dispersed city structures.

2. Economic and Environmental Challenges

• The average annual growth of economic activity across 48 cities was 2.42%, with the largest cities growing at 3.9–4.5%.
• Access to urban services and amenities is limited, with only:
  • 6.8% of the population within walking distance of health clinics,
  • 16.5% near schools,
  • 8% near public spaces,
  • 8% near sports facilities,
  • 3% near cultural centers.
• Climate-related risks are significant, with:
  • 75.6% of the population in earthquake-prone areas,
  • 17% exposed to the urban heat island (UHI) effect,
  • 2.5% at risk from pluvial flooding,
  • 3.5% at risk from fluvial flooding,
  • 1.1% vulnerable to landslides.
• These risks are exacerbated by climate change, making climate adaptation a critical priority.

3. Emissions and Environmental Impact

• Central Asian cities contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution.
• The average per capita GHG emissions from CA cities is 11.7 tons of CO₂ eq annually.
• PM10 emissions average 3.1 kg per capita.
• Urban green areas are insufficient, with a regional average of 7.6 m² per capita, far below the European average of 18.2 m² per capita.

Key Recommendations

The study proposes five key dimensions to guide the transformation of Central Asian cities into resilient and low-carbon environments:

1. Livable Green Cities

• Promote green infrastructure and nature-based solutions (NBS).
• Increase urban green areas and tree cover to mitigate climate risks and improve air quality.

2. Easy Access to Infrastructure and Services

• Improve accessibility to essential urban amenities like healthcare, education, public spaces, and sports facilities.
• Enhance walkability and public transport connectivity.

3. Adapt to Natural Hazards and Climate Risks

• Develop hazard-resistant infrastructure.
• Implement long-term climate adaptation strategies.
• Strengthen institutional preparedness and risk reduction mechanisms.

4. Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Concerns

• Decarbonize energy systems through renewables and efficient technologies.
• Improve energy efficiency in public buildings and industries.
• Introduce emissions trading schemes (ETS) and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

5. Enhanced Access to Jobs

• Promote transport-oriented development (TOD) to align economic activity with transport networks.
• Support job clusters and local economic development.
• Improve mobility infrastructure and public transport systems.

Methodology and Tools

• The study used scenario modeling for 2050 to project urban growth and its impacts.
• Two scenarios were analyzed:
  • No-Intervention: Assumes current trends continue with limited policy changes.
  • Vision: Envisions densification and green growth strategies to reduce emissions and enhance resilience.
• Spatial analysis was conducted using the GHS-FUA dataset and GIS tools.
• Stakeholder engagement and technical consultations were carried out across all five countries.

Conclusion

The CARL-Cities study highlights the urgent need for policy and investment at the subnational level to address climate risks and urban sustainability in Central Asia. By adopting green and resilient urban strategies, cities can significantly reduce emissions, improve service access, and enhance quality of life for residents. The recommendations provide a roadmap for achieving a low-carbon and climate-resilient urban future, supported by data-driven insights and actionable interventions.