德银-新兴市场-利率市场-新兴市场本地利率监测-20171129-Deutsche_Bank-EM_Local_Rates_Monitor_72页_4mb

报告摘要

EM Local Rates Monitor Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of Emerging Markets (EM) local rates and fixed income opportunities, including economic forecasts, trade recommendations, market analysis, and technical models. It highlights the current state of interest rates, inflation expectations, debt dynamics, and investment strategies across EMEA, LatAm, and Asia.

Key Economic Forecasts

Real GDP Growth

Global: 3.1% (2016), 3.7% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
US: 1.5% (2016), 2.2% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Japan: 1.0% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), 0.7% (2018F)
Euroland: 1.8% (2016), 2.2% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Germany: 1.9% (2016), 1.9% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
France: 1.1% (2016), 1.7% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Italy: 0.9% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), 1.2% (2018F)
Spain: 3.3% (2016), 3.0% (2017F), 2.5% (2018F)
Netherlands: 2.2% (2016), 3.2% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Belgium: 1.5% (2016), 1.9% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Austria: 1.6% (2016), 2.4% (2017F), 1.9% (2018F)
Finland: 1.9% (2016), 2.5% (2017F), 1.9% (2018F)
Greece: 0.0% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Portugal: 1.5% (2016), 2.6% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Ireland: 5.1% (2016), 4.5% (2017F), 3.7% (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: 1.9% (2016), 2.1% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
United Kingdom: 1.8% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), 1.0% (2018F)
Sweden: 3.1% (2016), 2.7% (2017F), 2.4% (2018F)
Denmark: 2.0% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Norway: 0.7% (2016), 1.3% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Switzerland: 1.4% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Canada: 1.5% (2016), 3.0% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Australia: 2.5% (2016), 2.2% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
New Zealand: 3.0% (2016), 2.8% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): 6.2% (2016), 6.1% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
China: 6.7% (2016), 6.8% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Hong Kong: 2.0% (2016), 3.8% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
India: 7.9% (2016), 6.5% (2017F), 7.5% (2018F)
Indonesia: 5.0% (2016), 5.0% (2017F), 4.8% (2018F)
Korea: 2.8% (2016), 3.1% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Malaysia: 4.2% (2016), 5.5% (2017F), 5.0% (2018F)
Philippines: 6.9% (2016), 6.4% (2017F), 5.7% (2018F)
Singapore: 2.0% (2016), 2.9% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Sri Lanka: 4.4% (2016), 4.0% (2017F), 5.0% (2018F)
Taiwan: 1.5% (2016), 2.5% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Thailand: 3.2% (2016), 3.7% (2017F), 3.6% (2018F)
Vietnam: 6.2% (2016), 6.6% (2017F), 6.4% (2018F)
Latin America: -1.4% (2016), 0.9% (2017F), 2.3% (2018F)
Argentina: -2.2% (2016), 3.0% (2017F), 3.1% (2018F)
Brazil: -3.6% (2016), 0.7% (2017F), 2.6% (2018F)
Chile: 1.6% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), 3.1% (2018F)
Colombia: 2.0% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), 2.5% (2018F)
Mexico: 2.3% (2016), 1.9% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Peru: 3.9% (2016), 2.7% (2017F), 4.0% (2018F)
Venezuela: -16.5% (2016), -12.0% (2017F), -6.0% (2018F)

Consumer Prices

Global: 3.8% (2016), 5.2% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
US: 1.3% (2016), 2.1% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Japan: -0.1% (2016), 0.3% (2017F), 0.4% (2018F)
Euroland: 0.2% (2016), 1.5% (2017F), 1.4% (2018F)
Germany: 0.4% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), 1.6% (2018F)
France: -0.3% (2016), 0.3% (2017F), 1.1% (2018F)
Italy: -0.1% (2016), 1.4% (2017F), 1.2% (2018F)
Spain: -0.3% (2016), -2.0% (2017F), -1.5% (2018F)
Netherlands: 0.1% (2016), 1.2% (2017F), 1.3% (2018F)
Belgium: 1.8% (2016), 2.2% (2017F), 1.7% (2018F)
Austria: 1.0% (2016), 2.1% (2017F), 1.8% (2018F)
Finland: 0.4% (2016), 0.9% (2017F), 1.2% (2018F)
Greece: 0.0% (2016), 1.2% (2017F), 0.8% (2018F)
Portugal: 0.6% (2016), 1.4% (2017F), 1.4% (2018F)
Ireland: -0.2% (2016), 0.3% (2017F), 1.1% (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: 1.0% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 1.8% (2018F)
United Kingdom: 0.6% (2016), 2.6% (2017F), 2.7% (2018F)
Sweden: 1.0% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), 1.8% (2018F)
Denmark: 0.2% (2016), 1.2% (2017F), 1.4% (2018F)
Norway: 3.6% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 2.0% (2018F)
Switzerland: -0.4% (2016), 0.3% (2017F), 0.3% (2018F)
Canada: 1.4% (2016), 1.6% (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Australia: 1.3% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 2.1% (2018F)
New Zealand: 0.6% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 2.3% (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): 2.6% (2016), 2.3% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
China: 2.0% (2016), 1.7% (2017F), 2.7% (2018F)
Hong Kong: 2.4% (2016), 1.7% (2017F), 4.4% (2018F)
India: 5.0% (2016), 3.1% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Indonesia: 3.5% (2016), 3.9% (2017F), 3.2% (2018F)
Korea: 1.0% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Malaysia: 2.1% (2016), 3.5% (2017F), 3.4% (2018F)
Philippines: 1.8% (2016), 3.2% (2017F), 3.4% (2018F)
Singapore: -0.5% (2016), 0.6% (2017F), 1.1% (2018F)
Sri Lanka: 4.0% (2016), 6.5% (2017F), 6.2% (2018F)
Taiwan: 1.4% (2016), 0.7% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Thailand: 0.2% (2016), 0.7% (2017F), 1.4% (2018F)
Vietnam: 2.7% (2016), 3.7% (2017F), 5.4% (2018F)
Latin America: 9.0% (2016), 3.5% (2017F), 3.5% (2018F)
Argentina: 41.3% (2016), 27.2% (2017F), 18.2% (2018F)
Brazil: 9.0% (2016), 3.5% (2017F), 3.5% (2018F)
Chile: 3.8% (2016), 2.2% (2017F), 2.3% (2018F)
Colombia: 7.5% (2016), 4.3% (2017F), 3.0% (2018F)
Mexico: 6.0% (2016), 6.0% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Peru: 3.6% (2016), 2.9% (2017F), 1.8% (2018F)
Venezuela: 254.4% (2016), 652.7% (2017F), 2349.3% (2018F)

Current Account

Global: 0.4% (2016), 0.3% (2017F), 0.1% (2018F)
US: 2.4% (2016), -2.9% (2017F), -3.2% (2018F)
Japan: 3.7% (2016), 4.0% (2017F), 4.2% (2018F)
Euroland: -1.5% (2016), -1.3% (2017F), -1.3% (2018F)
Germany: 8.4% (2016), 7.2% (2017F), 6.5% (2018F)
France: -0.9% (2016), -0.5% (2017F), -0.6% (2018F)
Italy: 2.6% (2016), 2.6% (2017F), 2.3% (2018F)
Spain: -4.5% (2016), -3.4% (2017F), -2.5% (2018F)
Netherlands: 9.0% (2016), 10.2% (2017F), 10.2% (2018F)
Belgium: 0.1% (2016), 0.0% (2017F), 0.5% (2018F)
Austria: 2.1% (2016), 2.0% (2017F), 2.3% (2018F)
Finland: -1.4% (2016), -0.5% (2017F), 0.0% (2018F)
Greece: -1.1% (2016), -0.5% (2017F), 0.0% (2018F)
Portugal: 0.9% (2016), 0.4% (2017F), 0.4% (2018F)
Ireland: -3.3% (2016), -2.5% (2017F), -3.1% (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: -2.1% (2016), -0.7% (2017F), -0.5% (2018F)
United Kingdom: -5.9% (2016), -3.8% (2017F), -3.5% (2018F)
Sweden: 4.7% (2016), 4.8% (2017F), 4.8% (2018F)
Denmark: 6.5% (2016), 7.5% (2017F), 7.3% (2018F)
Norway: 4.4% (2016), 6.1% (2017F), 6.4% (2018F)
Switzerland: 10.7% (2016), 11.2% (2017F), 11.0% (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): 2.6% (2016), 2.3% (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
China: 1.8% (2016), 1.2% (2017F), 1.2% (2018F)
Hong Kong: 4.6% (2016), 4.6% (2017F), 6.0% (2018F)
India: -0.5% (2016), -1.3% (2017F), -2.4% (2018F)
Indonesia: -1.8% (2016), -1.6% (2017F), -2.5% (2018F)
Korea: -1.8% (2016), -1.6% (2017F), -2.0% (2018F)
Malaysia: -2.4% (2016), -2.7% (2017F), -3.1% (2018F)
Philippines: -0.3% (2016), 0.6% (2017F), -2.4% (2018F)
Singapore: -2.4% (2016), -2.7% (2017F), -2.8% (2018F)
Sri Lanka: -2.4% (2016), -2.7% (2017F), -2.8% (2018F)
Taiwan: -3.8% (2016), -4.0% (2017F), -4.4% (2018F)
Thailand: -1.0% (2016), -2.0% (2017F), -2.0% (2018F)
Vietnam: -6.0% (2016), -5.4% (2017F), -5.4% (2018F)
Latin America: -9.0% (2016), -8.2% (2017F), -8.2% (2018F)

Fiscal Balance

Global: -3.2% (2016), -3.2% (2017F), -2.9% (2018F)
US: -3.1% (2016), -3.6% (2017F), -2.8% (2018F)
Japan: -3.5% (2016), -3.5% (2017F), -3.1% (2018F)
Euroland: -1.5% (2016), -1.3% (2017F), -1.3% (2018F)
Germany: -2.5% (2016), -2.3% (2017F), -2.2% (2018F)
France: -3.4% (2016), -3.0% (2017F), -2.7% (2018F)
Italy: -2.5% (2016), -2.3% (2017F), -2.2% (2018F)
Spain: -4.5% (2016), -3.4% (2017F), -2.5% (2018F)
Netherlands: 0.4% (2016), 1.1% (2017F), 0.5% (2018F)
Belgium: -2.5% (2016), -2.1% (2017F), -1.8% (2018F)
Austria: -1.6% (2016), -1.0% (2017F), -0.8% (2018F)
Finland: -1.7% (2016), -0.8% (2017F), -0.4% (2018F)
Greece: 0.5% (2016), -2.0% (2017F), -1.5% (2018F)
Portugal: -2.0% (2016), -1.6% (2017F), -1.4% (2018F)
Ireland: -0.7% (2016), 0.0% (2017F), 0.0% (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: -2.1% (2016), -1.4% (2017F), -1.3% (2018F)
United Kingdom: -5.9% (2016), -3.8% (2017F), -3.5% (2018F)
Sweden: 1.9% (2016), 0.7% (2017F), 0.7% (2018F)
Denmark: -1.2% (2016), -1.2% (2017F), -0.7% (2018F)
Norway: 3.0% (2016), 3.6% (2017F), 3.8% (2018F)
Switzerland: 0.2% (2016), 0.5% (2017F), 0.5% (2018F)
Canada: -3.6% (2016), -2.7% (2017F), -2.1% (2018F)
Australia: -2.6% (2016), -1.6% (2017F), -1.5% (2018F)
New Zealand: -3.4% (2016), -3.5% (2017F), -3.3% (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): -3.1% (2016), -2.1% (2017F), -2.1% (2018F)
China: -3.8% (2016), -4.0% (2017F), -4.0% (2018F)
Hong Kong: -19.4% (2016), -20.5% (2017F), -20.4% (2018F)
India: -3.5% (2016), -3.2% (2017F), -3.2% (2018F)
Indonesia: -2.5% (2016), -1.7% (2017F), -1.7% (2018F)
Korea: -3.1% (2016), -3.1% (2017F), -3.1% (2018F)
Malaysia: -3.1% (2016), -3.2% (2017F), -3.2% (2018F)
Philippines: -2.4% (2016), -2.6% (2017F), -2.6% (2018F)
Singapore: -5.5% (2016), -5.0% (2017F), -5.0% (2018F)
Sri Lanka: -2.4% (2016), -2.7% (2017F), -2.8% (2018F)
Taiwan: -3.8% (2016), -4.0% (2017F), -4.4% (2018F)
Thailand: -1.0% (2016), -2.0% (2017F), -2.0% (2018F)
Vietnam: -6.0% (2016), -5.4% (2017F), -5.4% (2018F)
Latin America: -17.8% (2016), -17.8% (2017F), -17.8% (2018F)

EM Fixed Income Trade Recommendations

EMEA

Czech Republic: Long 5s10s IRS steepeners, attractive steady-state return characteristics, flat curve
Hungary: Pay 5SY IRIS, term-premium too low, concerns on high price pressure
Israel: Long 3Y fwd 1y rate, delay in hiking cycle, attractive roll
Poland: Long July-27, high term-premium, light positioning
South Africa: Receive 2Y2Y IRS, too aggressive hiking cycle, dislocation between short-end and inflation expectations
Turkey: 1Y-5Y XCCY steepener with 6m FX payer hedge, mispricing of emergency hike

LatAm

Brazil: Jan19|Jan20, mispricing of monetary policy plays
Chile: 2s5s flatteners, market dynamics
Colombia: COLTES24s vs IBR5s, monetary policy plays
Mexico: Buy Mbonos 42s ASWs, higher term premium
Peru: Long Soberanos 37s vs Soberanos 26s, monetary plus FX play

Asia

Hong Kong: Pay 5Y/10Y steepener, expect steepening at long end
Korea: Pay 2Y/10Y steepener, dovish hike expected
India: Pay 1Y/5Y steepener, data-dependent RBI, poor technicals
China: Pay 5Y CNY NDIRS, risk of liquidity tightening

Market Overview

The market overview highlights the current levels and changes in bond swap basis for different maturities (2Y, 5Y, 10Y) across EMEA and LatAm. It provides insights into the relative performance and pricing of local bonds compared to US Treasuries.

EMEA

Czech Republic: 2Y bond swap basis 0.22, 5Y basis 0.84, 10Y basis 1.67
Hungary: 2Y basis 0.08, 5Y basis 1.08, 10Y basis 2.10
Israel: 2Y basis 0.19, 5Y basis 0.85, 10Y basis 1.81
Poland: 2Y basis 1.59, 5Y basis 2.60, 10Y basis 3.27
Romania: 2Y basis 3.09, 5Y basis 3.95, 10Y basis 4.51
Russia: 2Y basis 7.25, 5Y basis 7.43, 10Y basis 7.60
South Africa: 2Y basis 7.91, 5Y basis 8.48, 10Y basis 9.30
Turkey: 2Y basis 13.81, 5Y basis 13.13, 10Y basis 12.56

LatAm

Argentina: 2Y basis 25.63, 5Y basis 17.37, 10Y basis 14.95
Brazil: 2Y basis 7.96, 5Y basis 9.74, 10Y basis 10.13
Chile: 2Y basis 3.29, 5Y basis 3.96, 10Y basis 4.67
Colombia: 2Y basis 4.95, 5Y basis 5.81, 10Y basis 6.73
Mexico: 2Y basis 7.04, 5Y basis 7.10, 10Y basis 7.27
Peru: 2Y basis 110, 5Y basis 102, 10Y basis 80

Key Insights and Main Points

Economic Growth: Emerging markets are expected to show moderate growth, with some countries experiencing positive trends while others face challenges.
Inflation: Inflation expectations are mixed, with some countries facing high inflation and others showing signs of easing.
Current Account: Most EM countries have a negative current account balance, indicating potential trade imbalances.
Fiscal Balance: Fiscal deficits are a concern in many EM countries, with some showing improvement.
Interest Rate Strategies: The document suggests various strategies such as steepening, flattening, and hedging against inflation and FX movements.
Technical Models: Highlights the best bonds and switches based on market conditions and expected performance.

Key Information

The document includes data from various EM countries, highlighting their economic forecasts and fixed income strategies.
Trade recommendations are based on current market conditions and expectations.
The market overview provides detailed insights into bond swap basis and changes, helping investors understand the relative value of local bonds.
The document is structured to allow for easy navigation between different sections, including EMEA, LatAm, and Asia.

展开完整摘要