德银-新兴市场-利率-新兴市场本地利率监测-20171121-Deutsche_Bank-EM_Local_Rates_Monitor_70页_4mb

报告摘要

EM Local Rates Monitor Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of economic forecasts, trade recommendations, market conditions, and technical models for Emerging Markets (EM) local rates, with a focus on EMEA, Latin America (LatAm), and Asia. It includes insights on interest rate swaps, cross currency swaps, inflation-linked bonds, and the impact of external factors on EM bond yields.

Key Economic Forecasts

Real GDP (%)

Global: 3.1 (2016), 3.7 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
US: 1.5 (2016), 2.2 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Japan: 1.0 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), 0.7 (2018F)
Euroland: 1.8 (2016), 2.2 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
Germany: 1.9 (2016), 1.9 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
France: 1.1 (2016), 1.7 (2017F), 1.7 (2018F)
Italy: 0.9 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), 1.2 (2018F)
Spain: 3.3 (2016), 3.0 (2017F), 2.5 (2018F)
Netherlands: 2.2 (2016), 3.2 (2017F), 3.3 (2018F)
Belgium: 1.5 (2016), 1.9 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
Austria: 1.6 (2016), 2.4 (2017F), 1.9 (2018F)
Finland: 1.9 (2016), 2.5 (2017F), 1.9 (2018F)
Greece: 0.0 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), 2.7 (2018F)
Portugal: 1.5 (2016), 2.6 (2017F), 1.7 (2018F)
Ireland: 5.1 (2016), 4.5 (2017F), 3.7 (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: 1.9 (2016), 2.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
UK: 1.8 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.0 (2018F)
Sweden: 3.1 (2016), 2.7 (2017F), 2.4 (2018F)
Denmark: 2.0 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
Norway: 0.7 (2016), 1.3 (2017F), 1.9 (2018F)
Switzerland: 1.4 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), 1.9 (2018F)
Canada: 1.5 (2016), 3.0 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Australia: 2.5 (2016), 2.2 (2017F), 2.6 (2018F)
New Zealand: 3.0 (2016), 2.8 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa: 1.5 (2016), 3.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Czech Republic: 2.5 (2016), 3.8 (2017F), 3.0 (2018F)
Egypt: 4.3 (2016), 4.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Hungary: 2.0 (2016), 3.8 (2017F), 3.5 (2018F)
Israel: 4.0 (2016), 3.3 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Poland: 2.7 (2016), 4.3 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Russia: -0.4 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
South Africa: 0.3 (2016), 0.8 (2017F), 1.7 (2018F)
Turkey: 3.2 (2016), 5.2 (2017F), 4.1 (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): 6.2 (2016), 6.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
China: 6.7 (2016), 6.8 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Hong Kong: 2.0 (2016), 3.8 (2017F), 3.0 (2018F)
India: 7.9 (2016), 6.5 (2017F), 7.5 (2018F)
Indonesia: 5.0 (2016), 5.0 (2017F), 4.8 (2018F)
Korea: 2.8 (2016), 3.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Malaysia: 4.2 (2016), 5.5 (2017F), 5.0 (2018F)
Philippines: 6.9 (2016), 6.4 (2017F), 5.7 (2018F)
Singapore: 2.0 (2016), 2.9 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Sri Lanka: 4.4 (2016), 4.0 (2017F), 5.0 (2018F)
Taiwan: 1.5 (2016), 2.5 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Thailand: 3.2 (2016), 3.7 (2017F), 3.6 (2018F)
Vietnam: 6.2 (2016), 6.6 (2017F), 6.4 (2018F)
Latin America: -1.4 (2016), 0.9 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Argentina: -2.2 (2016), 3.0 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Brazil: -3.6 (2016), 0.7 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Chile: 1.6 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Colombia: 2.0 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Mexico: 2.3 (2016), 1.9 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Peru: 3.9 (2016), 2.7 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Venezuela: -16.5 (2016), -12.0 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
G7: 1.4 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Advance Economies: 1.6 (2016), 2.1 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Emerging Markets: 4.2 (2016), 4.8 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
BRICs: 5.3 (2016), 5.7 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)

Consumer Prices (%)

Global: 3.8 (2016), 5.2 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
US: 1.3 (2016), 2.1 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
Japan: -0.1 (2016), 0.3 (2017F), 0.4 (2018F)
Euroland: 0.2 (2016), 1.5 (2017F), 1.4 (2018F)
Germany: 0.4 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.6 (2018F)
France: -0.1 (2016), 1.1 (2017F), 1.1 (2018F)
Italy: -0.1 (2016), 1.4 (2017F), 1.2 (2018F)
Spain: -0.3 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 1.5 (2018F)
Netherlands: 0.1 (2016), 1.2 (2017F), 1.3 (2018F)
Belgium: 1.8 (2016), 2.2 (2017F), 1.7 (2018F)
Austria: 1.0 (2016), 2.1 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
Finland: 0.4 (2016), 0.9 (2017F), 1.2 (2018F)
Greece: 0.0 (2016), 1.2 (2017F), 0.8 (2018F)
Portugal: 0.6 (2016), 1.4 (2017F), 1.4 (2018F)
Ireland: -0.2 (2016), 0.3 (2017F), 1.1 (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: 1.0 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.1 (2018F)
UK: 0.6 (2016), 2.6 (2017F), 2.7 (2018F)
Sweden: 1.0 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
Denmark: 0.2 (2016), 1.2 (2017F), 1.4 (2018F)
Norway: 3.6 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
Switzerland: -0.4 (2016), 0.3 (2017F), 0.3 (2018F)
Canada: 1.4 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.6 (2018F)
Australia: 1.3 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.1 (2018F)
New Zealand: 0.6 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.3 (2018F)
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa: 6.2 (2016), 6.7 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Czech Republic: 0.7 (2016), 2.5 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Egypt: 10.2 (2016), 23.3 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Hungary: 0.4 (2016), 2.3 (2017F), 2.6 (2018F)
Israel: -0.5 (2016), 0.2 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Poland: -0.6 (2016), 1.9 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Russia: 7.1 (2016), 3.7 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
South Africa: 6.3 (2016), 5.2 (2017F), 4.4 (2018F)
Turkey: 7.8 (2016), 10.9 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): 2.6 (2016), 2.3 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
China: 2.0 (2016), 1.7 (2017F), 2.7 (2018F)
Hong Kong: 2.4 (2016), 1.7 (2017F), 4.4 (2018F)
India: 5.0 (2016), 3.1 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Indonesia: 3.5 (2016), 3.9 (2017F), 3.2 (2018F)
Korea: 1.0 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Malaysia: 2.1 (2016), 3.5 (2017F), 2.5 (2018F)
Philippines: 1.8 (2016), 3.2 (2017F), 3.4 (2018F)
Singapore: -0.5 (2016), 0.6 (2017F), ↑ (2018F)
Sri Lanka: 4.0 (2016), 6.5 (2017F), 6.2 (2018F)
Taiwan: 1.4 (2016), 0.7 (2017F), 1.4 (2018F)
Thailand: 0.2 (2016), 0.7 (2017F), 1.4 (2018F)
Vietnam: 2.7 (2016), 3.7 (2017F), 5.4 (2018F)
Latin America: 22.7 (2016), 37.4 (2017F), 109.4 (2018F)
Argentina: 41.3 (2016), 27.2 (2017F), 18.2 (2018F)
Brazil: 9.0 (2016), 3.5 (2017F), 3.5 (2018F)
Chile: 3.8 (2016), 2.2 (2017F), 2.3 (2018F)
Colombia: 7.5 (2016), 4.3 (2017F), 3.0 (2018F)
Mexico: 2.8 (2016), 6.0 (2017F), 4.0 (2018F)
Peru: 3.6 (2016), 2.9 (2017F), 1.8 (2018F)
Venezuela: 254.4 (2016), 652.7 (2017F), 2349.3 (2018F)
G7: 0.8 (2016), 1.7 (2017F), 1.7 (2018F)
Advance Economies: 0.7 (2016), 1.7 (2017F), 1.6 (2018F)
Emerging Markets: 6.1 (2016), 7.7 (2017F), 17.0 (2018F)
BRICs: 3.9 (2016), 1.0 (2017F), 0.7 (2018F)

Current Account (% GDP)

Global: 0.4 (2016), 0.3 (2017F), 0.1 (2018F)
US: -3.2 (2016), -3.2 (2017F), -2.9 (2018F)
Japan: 3.7 (2016), 4.0 (2017F), 4.2 (2018F)
Euroland: -1.5 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -1.3 (2018F)
Germany: -3.1 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -2.8 (2018F)
France: -0.9 (2016), -0.5 (2017F), -0.6 (2018F)
Italy: -2.5 (2016), -2.3 (2017F), -2.2 (2018F)
Spain: -4.5 (2016), -3.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Netherlands: -1.4 (2016), -0.5 (2017F), 0.0 (2018F)
Belgium: -2.5 (2016), -2.1 (2017F), -1.8 (2018F)
Austria: -1.4 (2016), -0.5 (2017F), 0.0 (2018F)
Finland: -1.7 (2016), -0.8 (2017F), -0.4 (2018F)
Greece: -1.1 (2016), -0.5 (2017F), 0.0 (2018F)
Portugal: -2.0 (2016), -1.6 (2017F), -1.4 (2018F)
Ireland: -0.7 (2016), 0.0 (2017F), 0.0 (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: -2.1 (2016), -0.7 (2017F), -0.5 (2018F)
UK: -5.9 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -3.5 (2018F)
Sweden: -4.5 (2016), -3.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Denmark: -1.2 (2016), -1.2 (2017F), -0.7 (2018F)
Norway: -3.6 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -2.6 (2018F)
Switzerland: -1.2 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -0.8 (2018F)
Canada: -3.6 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -2.1 (2018F)
Australia: -2.6 (2016), -1.6 (2017F), -1.5 (2018F)
New Zealand: -3.4 (2016), -3.5 (2017F), -3.3 (2018F)
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa: -4.6 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -3.5 (2018F)
Czech Republic: -2.3 (2016), -2.6 (2017F), -2.9 (2018F)
Egypt: -6.0 (2016), -6.1 (2017F), -6.0 (2018F)
Hungary: -1.8 (2016), -2.3 (2017F), -2.4 (2018F)
Israel: -2.1 (2016), -2.6 (2017F), -2.6 (2018F)
Poland: -0.3 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -1.1 (2018F)
Russia: -3.4 (2016), -2.5 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
South Africa: -3.3 (2016), -2.5 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
Turkey: -4.8 (2016), -1.1 (2017F), -2.0 (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): -3.1 (2016), -3.1 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
China: -3.8 (2016), -4.0 (2017F), -4.0 (2018F)
Hong Kong: -3.8 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -3.8 (2018F)
India: -1.5 (2016), -3.5 (2017F), -3.5 (2018F)
Indonesia: -1.4 (2016), -1.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Korea: -1.0 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -1.0 (2018F)
Malaysia: -2.4 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
Philippines: -0.3 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -2.4 (2018F)
Singapore: -5.5 (2016), -5.0 (2017F), -5.0 (2018F)
Sri Lanka: -2.4 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -2.7 (2018F)
Taiwan: -1.5 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -1.3 (2018F)
Thailand: -1.0 (2016), -2.0 (2017F), -2.0 (2018F)
Vietnam: -2.2 (2016), -6.0 (2017F), -5.4 (2018F)
Latin America: -2.1 (2016), -1.5 (2017F), -6.3 (2018F)
Argentina: -2.7 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -5.8 (2018F)
Brazil: -1.3 (2016), -0.4 (2017F), -0.4 (2018F)
Chile: -1.4 (2016), -1.7 (2017F), -1.7 (2018F)
Colombia: -4.4 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -3.6 (2018F)
Mexico: -3.0 (2016), -1.8 (2017F), -1.8 (2018F)
Peru: -2.8 (2016), -1.7 (2017F), -3.0 (2018F)
Venezuela: -17.8 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -1.3 (2018F)
G7: -2.6 (2016), -2.8 (2017F), -2.8 (2018F)
Advance Economies: -2.4 (2016), -2.5 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Emerging Markets: -3.9 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -3.6 (2018F)
BRICs: -3.9 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -3.6 (2018F)

Fiscal Balance (% GDP)

Global: -3.2 (2016), -3.2 (2017F), -2.9 (2018F)
US: -3.1 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -2.8 (2018F)
Japan: -3.5 (2016), -3.5 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
Euroland: -1.5 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -1.3 (2018F)
Germany: -3.1 (2016), -3.6 (2017F), -2.8 (2018F)
France: -3.4 (2016), -3.0 (2017F), -2.7 (2018F)
Italy: -2.5 (2016), -2.3 (2017F), -2.2 (2018F)
Spain: -4.5 (2016), -3.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Netherlands: -1.4 (2016), -0.5 (2017F), -0.5 (2018F)
Belgium: -2.5 (2016), -2.1 (2017F), -1.8 (2018F)
Austria: -1.6 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -0.8 (2018F)
Finland: -1.7 (2016), -0.8 (2017F), -0.4 (2018F)
Greece: -1.1 (2016), -2.0 (2017F), -1.5 (2018F)
Portugal: -2.0 (2016), -1.6 (2017F), -1.4 (2018F)
Ireland: -0.7 (2016), 0.0 (2017F), 0.0 (2018F)
Other Industrial Countries: -2.1 (2016), -1.5 (2017F), -1.4 (2018F)
UK: -2.9 (2016), -2.9 (2017F), -2.6 (2018F)
Sweden: -4.5 (2016), -3.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Denmark: -1.2 (2016), -1.2 (2017F), -0.7 (2018F)
Norway: -3.4 (2016), -2.5 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Switzerland: -1.2 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -0.8 (2018F)
Canada: -3.6 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -2.1 (2018F)
Australia: -2.2 (2016), -1.8 (2017F), -1.5 (2018F)
New Zealand: -3.4 (2016), -3.5 (2017F), -3.3 (2018F)
Emerging Europe, Middle East & Africa: -4.6 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -3.5 (2018F)
Czech Republic: -2.3 (2016), -2.6 (2017F), -2.9 (2018F)
Egypt: -6.0 (2016), -6.1 (2017F), -6.0 (2018F)
Hungary: -1.8 (2016), -2.3 (2017F), -2.4 (2018F)
Israel: -2.1 (2016), -2.6 (2017F), -2.6 (2018F)
Poland: -0.3 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -1.1 (2018F)
Russia: -3.4 (2016), -2.5 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
South Africa: -3.4 (2016), -4.3 (2017F), ↓ (2018F)
Turkey: -4.8 (2016), -1.1 (2017F), -2.0 (2018F)
Asia (ex-Japan): -3.1 (2016), -3.1 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
China: -3.8 (2016), -4.0 (2017F), -4.0 (2018F)
Hong Kong: -3.8 (2016), -3.8 (2017F), -3.8 (2018F)
India: -1.5 (2016), -3.5 (2017F), -3.5 (2018F)
Indonesia: -1.4 (2016), -1.4 (2017F), -2.5 (2018F)
Korea: -1.0 (2016), -1.0 (2017F), -1.0 (2018F)
Malaysia: -2.4 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -3.1 (2018F)
Philippines: -0.3 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -2.4 (2018F)
Singapore: -5.5 (2016), -5.0 (2017F), -5.0 (2018F)
Sri Lanka: -2.4 (2016), -2.7 (2017F), -2.7 (2018F)
Taiwan: -1.5 (2016), -1.3 (2017F), -1.3 (2018F)
Thailand: -1.0 (2016), -2.0 (2017F), -2.0 (2018F)
Vietnam: -2.2 (2016), -6.0 (2017F), -5.4 (2018F)
Latin America: -2.1 (2016), -1.5 (2017F), -6.3 (2018F)
Argentina: -2.7 (201