20151221-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_39页_1mb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the credit implications of various current events across different sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, Insurers, Sovereigns, and Securitization. It provides insights into how these events affect the credit profiles of entities, with a focus on rating changes, financial impacts, and market conditions.

Main Views and Key Information

Corporates

• Sato Oyi (Baa3 stable): The acquisition of a controlling stake by Balder (unrated) is credit positive. This diversifies Sato's operations and reduces leverage, though the company remains a separate legal entity.
• Balder: A Swedish real estate company with a significant property portfolio (SEK39.9 billion) and diversified rental income across residential, office, retail, and other sectors. Balder's consolidation of Sato will increase its property value to SEK67 billion and reduce its loan-to-value ratio to 49% (from 50.9% in September 2015).
• Credit Outlook: Sato's rating and outlook remain unchanged. Balder's financial profile is expected to improve due to diversification, despite a reduced focus on residential properties.

Infrastructure

• Los Angeles Airport (LAX, Aa3 positive): The ownership transfer of Ontario International Airport (ONT, Baa1 stable) to the City of Ontario is credit positive for LAX and credit negative for ONT.
• ONT: The transfer increases its liabilities by approximately 190% and reduces its cash by 25%. It also requires the issuance of bonds to retire existing debt.
• LAX: Will benefit from a more focused management on a single airport and improved cash reserves.
• Ownership Transition: The new OIAA has fewer resources and faces management challenges, which could affect ONT's credit profile.

Banks

• Hancock Holding Company (Baa1 negative): Raised its energy loan reserves, signaling asset quality deterioration. This is a credit negative for Hancock and other energy-exposed banks.
• Energy Loan Portfolios: Four US banks (Hancock, BOK, Cullen/Frost, Texas Capital) have significant energy loan exposures. Low oil prices and sector concentration risk increase the likelihood of credit losses.
• Brazil's Central Bank: Eased reserve requirements to stimulate lending, which is credit negative for large banks due to increased asset risks amid economic recession.
• Greek Banks: New legislation allows the sale of nonperforming loans (NPLs), which is credit positive. However, the process is expected to take a year, and the sale of certain NPLs could still result in losses.
• Skandiabanken AB (A2 negative): Wrote down 60% of its intangible assets, indicating lower expected returns on IT investments. This is a credit negative, as it signals continued inefficiency and lower profitability.
• Efficiency and Profitability: Skandiabanken's cost-to-income ratio remains high (around 105%), and the write down slightly improves net income but does not significantly enhance efficiency.

Insurers

• US Health Insurers: Positive credit implications from spending and tax bills.
• Guardian: Sale of RS Investments is credit positive, improving its financial position.

Sovereigns

• Mongolia's Oyo Tolgoi Mine: Project financing is credit positive, as it supports trade and investment.
• Oklahoma: Revenue decline foreshadows credit-negative budget stress for energy states.

Securitization

• Argentina: Elimination of interest rate caps is credit negative for securitizations, as it may reduce the attractiveness of securitized products.

Rating Changes

• Upgraded: AMC Networks, Banco Interactions
• Downgraded: AstraZeneca, Syniverse Holdings, Yum! Brands, Genworth Seguros de Credito
• Rating Actions: Conducted on Commercial Mortgage Trust 2007-CD4 and Credit Suisse Commercial Mortgage Trust 2006-C3

Research Highlights

• Covered a wide range of topics including diamond miners, the Paris climate accord, global oil & gas, real estate in the UK and France, US fed funds rate hike, and various securitization and ABS products in different regions.

Additional Notes

• Moody's Credit Outlook is on vacation until 11 January 2016.
• The British electricity capacity market auction results show a lower clearing price (9.3% decrease), which is credit negative for generators, especially large utilities like SSE plc.
• The auction results suggest that the electricity market remains well-supplied, limiting the potential for margin recovery.
• The new UK legislation aims to encourage gas-fired generation, but the current auction results indicate a preference for existing plants and interconnectors.