20150427-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_39页_981kb

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides a summary of credit implications of various current events affecting different sectors, including Corporates, Infrastructure, Banks, Insurers, and Securitization. It outlines Moody's analysis of specific corporate actions, their financial impact, and how they affect credit ratings and outlooks.

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Main Points

Corporates

• Teva's Bid for Mylan:

  • Teva's offer to acquire Mylan is credit negative due to increased leverage and potential disruption from a hostile takeover.
  • Mylan's credit outlook is now "developing" as it resists the acquisition and may pursue defensive strategies.
  • The deal could be problematic due to overlapping products and integration risks, especially with antitrust regulators potentially requiring divestitures.
  • Teva's leverage is expected to rise to 4.4x, though synergies could reduce this to below 4.0x.

• Natural Resource Partners (NRP):

  • NRP's decision to cut dividends by 75% and pay down debt is credit positive.
  • The move aims to strengthen its balance sheet amid challenges in the coal industry.
  • NRP's debt/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 5.0x to 3.5x by 2017.
  • The coal business remains a significant risk, with revenue concentration in Central Appalachia.

• Arris' Acquisition of Pace:

  • The acquisition is credit negative due to integration risks and potential revenue pressure from overlapping customers.
  • Arris' leverage is expected to remain stable at around 2.6x.
  • The deal has strategic benefits, including increased scale and market position.

• Michelin's Share Buybacks:

  • The €750 million share buyback program is credit negative as it consumes free cash flow and reduces liquidity.
  • The company expects retained cash flow/net debt to remain around 40%-42%.
  • Despite the buybacks, Michelin's A3 rating and stable outlook remain intact due to its strong market position and higher-margin replacement tire business.

• Tate & Lyle's Restructuring:

  • Exiting the European bulk sweeteners business and restructuring Sucralose operations is credit positive.
  • The move reduces exposure to low-return and volatile markets, focusing on more profitable Speciality Food Ingredients (SFI) operations.
  • The restructuring is expected to lead to breakeven in 2016 and modest profitability in 2017.

• Daiichi Sankyo's Exit from India:

  • The sale of a 9% stake in Sun Pharmaceutical Industries for $3.2 billion is credit positive.
  • The proceeds will help reduce debt and improve the company's credit profile.
  • The sale also helps mitigate legal and operational risks associated with its previous investments in Ranbaxy.

• DEXUS' Equity Raise:

  • DEXUS raised AUD450 million in equity to reduce debt and fund future acquisitions.
  • The move is credit positive, helping the company stay within its internal gearing targets.
  • DEXUS' capital management strategy has shifted from buybacks to equity issuance when share prices are high.

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Key Information

Credit Positive Actions

• Natural Resource Partners cutting dividends and paying down debt
• Tate & Lyle restructuring and exiting low-return businesses
• Daiichi Sankyo exiting India and reducing exposure to legal risks
• DEXUS raising equity to reduce debt and fund acquisitions

Credit Negative Actions

• Teva's acquisition of Mylan due to increased leverage and integration risks
• Michelin's share buybacks due to reduced liquidity and free cash flow
• Mylan's acquisition of Perrigo, which increases combined leverage
• China's on-grid tariff cuts for coal-fired power plants, reducing revenues for power producers

Rating Changes

• Downgraded: Advanced Micro Devices, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS Capital Services, Eurasian Bank, Belarusbank, Belagroprombank, BPS-Sberbank, Belinvestbank, Minsk Transit Bank, Kaspi Bank, BBK, National Bank of Bahrain, Bahrain Development Bank
• Upgraded: Celgene, Service Corporation International, The Hartford Financial Services Group, Chaco Province in Argentina, four classes of Banc of America Commercial Pass-Through Certificates Series 2006-1, one subordinate class of TCF Auto Receivables Owner Trust 2014-1

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Other Highlights

• Infrastructure: China's on-grid tariff cut for coal-fired plants is credit negative for power producers but credit neutral for grid operators.
• Banks: The agreement among German public-sector banks to support a deposit guarantee scheme is credit positive, showing cohesion and institutional protection.
• Insurers: Willis Group's purchase of Gras Savoye raises credit risk, while Fidelity National's refinancing of Black Knight Financial Services is credit positive.
• US Public Finance: Puerto Rico's delay in filing audited financial statements is credit negative.
• Securitization: FHFA's warning on super-priority lien foreclosures benefits Freddie Mac's risk-transfer deal.

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Conclusion

The document highlights a mix of credit positive and negative developments across various sectors, emphasizing the importance of financial leverage, liquidity, and strategic moves in shaping credit risk. Moody's analysis shows that while some companies are taking steps to strengthen their financial positions, others face challenges due to market conditions, integration risks, and regulatory changes.