20211004-IMF-Republic_of_Congo_2021_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_the_Republic_of_Congo_104页_3mb

报告摘要

Economic Situation: The Republic of Congo's economy was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and a sharp decline in oil prices during 2020. GDP contracted by 8.2%, the deepest recession since 2009. In 2021, with higher oil prices and vaccination efforts, growth is projected to recover slightly (0.2% in 2021, 2.3% in 2024).
Debt Sustainability: External debt remains a concern, but recent debt restructuring agreements and higher oil revenues have improved liquidity. Public debt-to-GDP peaked at 101% in 2020 but is projected to stabilize at 57% by end-2021. However, vulnerabilities persist due to oil price volatility and weak fiscal space.

Fiscal Policy:
- Continue revenue mobilization efforts, including reducing tax exemptions and broadening the tax base.
- Prioritize social spending and domestic arrears repayments, but avoid excessive fiscal consolidation that could hinder necessary investments.
- Maintain fiscal discipline while supporting COVID-19 recovery measures.
Governance and Transparency:
- Finalize and fully operationalize the new anti-corruption law.
- Improve public financial management (PFM) systems, including enhancing budget execution reporting and debt management.
Economic Diversification:
- Accelerate reforms to reduce reliance on oil, such as diversifying into agriculture, mining, and tourism.
- Invest in climate-resilient infrastructure and renewable energy to address climate change impacts.

Growth: Economic activity is slowly recovering but remains vulnerable to COVID-19 variants and oil price shocks.
Fiscal Risks: Broader-based revenue mobilization and external financing are needed to support debt sustainability and inclusive growth.
External Risks: High external debt stocks and concerns over private creditors' restructuring progress pose liquidity risks.

Staff welcomes the authorities' commitment to reforms but stresses the need for more substantial progress in debt restructuring and revenue mobilization.
The economy is projected to grow at 2.3% in 2024, supported by oil sector recovery and non-oil growth, though risks remain high.

Congo's debt is classified as "in distress" pending the resolution of external arrears and completion of restructuring negotiations. Recent improvements are due to higher oil prices and debt repayments, but vulnerabilities persist.

Data quality is broadly adequate for surveillance but suffers from gaps in national accounts, fiscal statistics, and external sector data. Efforts are underway to improve data collection and dissemination under IMF technical assistance.