20240603-IMF-Djibouti_2024_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Djibouti_71页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti

Core Content

The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Djibouti, conducted by the IMF, evaluated the country's economic developments and policies. The consultation concluded on March 22, 2024, following discussions with Djibouti officials from January 14–25, 2024. The key documents released include a Press Release, Staff Report, Debt Sustainability Analysis, and a Statement by the Executive Director. These documents outline Djibouti's economic performance, risks, and policy recommendations for sustainable growth.

Main Economic Developments

Growth and Inflation

Growth rebounded strongly in 2023 at about 7%, supported by port activity and construction.
Inflation averaged 1.8% in 2023, projected to remain subdued.
2024 growth is expected to be 6.5%, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for the medium-term.

Trade and External Sector

Trade with Ethiopia played a key role in the recovery, though Djibouti's reliance on this trade exposes it to regional shocks.
Current account balance improved to 23.5% of GDP in 2023 from 17.6% in 2022.
Trade balance widened to 22.4% of GDP in 2023, with reexports accounting for 92% of total exports.
Official reserves stood at USD 573 million as of end-2023, covering 4.7 months of imports (excluding reexports).

Debt and Fiscal Position

External public debt to GDP decreased from 68% in 2022 to 62.8% in 2023.
Debt service moratorium with Exim Bank China was reached in October 2023, providing a window for addressing the debt burden.
Arrears on external public debt reached 6% of GDP in Q2 2023, and 0.6% of GDP to domestic providers.
Primary deficit increased to 1.3% of GDP in 2023 from 0.7% in 2022, due to a drop in revenues.

Key Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policies

Conclude debt renegotiations and clear arrears to restore debt sustainability.
Improve tax collection and rationalize tax incentives and VAT exemptions.
Better target fuel subsidies to free up resources for social spending.
Strengthen fiscal institutions to enhance policy coherence and revenue base.

State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Governance

Improve SOE governance to increase their contribution to central government revenues.
Contain SOE borrowing risks and level the playing field for private sector development.
Implement restructuring of administrative SOEs to ensure sustainable operations.

Monetary and Financial Sector

Improve banking regulation and oversight to strengthen the financial sector.
Introduce a reserve requirement by the Central Bank of Djibouti (CBD) to enhance liquidity management.
Monitor credit quality, especially exposure to SOEs, as nonperforming loans (NPLs) dropped to 4.5% in Q1 2023.

Structural Reforms

Enhance private sector job creation and reduce informality.
Improve education and training to support inclusive growth.
Lower telecom and energy costs to boost competitiveness.
Boost resilience to climate shocks.
Promote more diversified and inclusive growth by shifting from reliance on a single client (Ethiopia) to a broader economic base.

Key Risks and Challenges

External risks include Ethiopia's economic trajectory, regional migration, and potential disruptions in the Red Sea.
Fiscal vulnerabilities remain due to low revenue-to-GDP ratio, tax expenditures, and limited SOE contributions.
Job creation has not kept pace with growth, with unemployment at 47% and only 10% of the working-age population in formal employment.
Data quality is a concern, particularly in the external sector analysis.

Key Indicators Overview

Indicator	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Real GDP	1.3	4.5	3.9	7.0	6.5	6.0	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5
Consumer Prices (Annual Average)	1.8	1.2	5.2	1.8	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2
Fixed Capital Investment	29.7	29.7	30.4	30.6	30.8	31.1	31.5	32.0	32.4	33.3
Central Government Revenues	22.9	20.1	18.6	17.5	17.5	17.5	17.6	17.6	17.4	17.3
Tax Revenues	11.7	11.6	11.2	10.8	11.2	11.5	11.8	12.0	12.0	12.0
Non-tax Revenue	7.9	6.7	6.5	5.5	5.3	5.0	4.8	4.6	4.4	4.3
Current Account Balance (percent of GDP)	11.5	-6.6	17.6	23.5	5.1	4.0	2.9	6.1	5.8	5.2
Foreign Direct Investment (percent of GDP)	5.0	4.9	5.0	4.5	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.2	4.1	4.0
Gross Official Reserves (months of imports)	2.9	5.5	7.2	4.7	5.1	5.3	5.6	6.1	6.5	7.0

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board welcomed Djibouti's recovery in 2023, driven by the Ethiopian peace agreement, but emphasized the need for concerted efforts to address fiscal vulnerabilities, enhance governance, and implement structural reforms. The next Article IV consultation is expected to be held on the standard 12-month cycle. The debt sustainability and policy coherence remain critical areas for improvement, with a focus on revenue mobilization, SOE reforms, and private sector development.