20220609-马银证券_香港_-每日港股简评_2页_162kb

Market Summary: Key Highlights and Outlook

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the Hong Kong market performance and outlook for key sectors in China, including the internet, electric vehicles (EVs), expressways, and specific companies such as Samsonite and GAC Group. It also includes important disclaimers regarding the nature of the information provided.

Main Market Performance

• Hang Seng Index: Rose by 482 points to 22,014 points, driven by a strong rally in the tech sector.
• Tech Sector: Showed significant gains, with Alibaba-SW (9988 HK) up 10% and BiliBili-SW (9626 HK) up 19%.
• Daily Turnover: Increased by HKD184 billion, indicating improved market activity.
• Technical Analysis: The accumulated correction from March 2021 to February 2022 was approximately 13,000 points. Using the first Golden Ratio (0.382), the resistance level is estimated at around 23,200 points.

Sector Outlook

China Internet Sector

• Regulatory Outlook: The market believes the worst of the regulatory crackdown on the internet sector is over, with the second batch of gaming approvals and the easing of restrictions on companies like DiDi.
• Recovery Path: A gradual recovery is expected, with logistics being the first sub-sector to rebound due to increased parcel volume. E-commerce and online games are likely to follow, improving consumer sentiment. Online advertising is expected to benefit from the broader economic recovery.

China EV Sector

• Production Recovery: CATL's June production is expected to recover by around 20% month-over-month, surpassing pre-lockdown levels in March.
• Peak Season Expectation: Battery production is anticipated to reach peak levels in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22E), ahead of the peak in auto/EV sales.
• Sales Growth: Auto sales are expected to benefit from Shanghai's re-opening and government stimulus policies. Battery prices may also rise in June due to high material costs.

China Expressway Sector

• Impact of Pandemic: Most expressway companies saw negative YoY growth in April, reflecting the impact of the pandemic.
• Recovery Expectation: With Shanghai lifting regional traffic controls in June and Beijing under control, market expects toll traffic to recover from a low base.
• Valuation: The sector is considered defensive due to its relatively high yield (6.5% to 10%).

Company Highlights

Samsonite (1910 HK)

• Sales Performance: Sales improved to around 80% of pre-COVID levels in April-May 2022, aligning with management's full-year guidance of 80-85% of 2019 levels for 2022E.
• Regional Performance: North America sales reached 85% of 2019 levels, while Asia lagged at 60% due to the outbreak in China.
• 2023E Outlook: Management expects full recovery to pre-COVID levels and to maintain a gross profit margin of around 55% in both FY22E and FY23E.

GAC Group (2238 HK)

• Auto Sales: April auto sales volume increased by 41% MoM and 4% YoY to around 183,000 units, outperforming the industry average.
• Growth Drivers: Strong performance from the Toyota joint venture and the GAC brand Trumpchi and Aion.
• Production Recovery: The GAC Aion plant has resumed double-shift production.
• 2022E Outlook: Market expects further sales improvement in June, supported by Shanghai's re-opening and strong market interest in GAC Aion.

Key Information

• The Hang Seng Index is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the tech sector.
• The internet sector is expected to gradually recover, with logistics leading the way.
• The EV sector is anticipated to see a peak in battery production before auto sales.
• The expressway sector is expected to benefit from the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions.
• Samsonite and GAC Group are both showing signs of recovery, with positive sales trends and production improvements.

Disclaimers

• The document is for general information and not an investment recommendation.
• No independent verification of the information is conducted.
• The information may be based on data from various sources and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• There are risks associated with international investments, including economic, political, and currency-related factors.
• Readers are advised to consult with their financial advisors before making investment decisions.