2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_A_New_Strategy_for_Europe_2页_75kb

Brexit, Globalisation and the Future of the EU

核心内容

Brexit, the UK's decision to leave the European Union following the 2016 referendum, has had significant implications for the EU and globalisation. It is viewed as a tipping point in international relations, similar to the fall of the Iron Curtain, and has introduced new challenges to the EU's integration and foreign policy. The EU Global Strategy (EUGS) was introduced shortly after the referendum, aiming to guide the EU's approach to globalisation and international cooperation.

主要观点

• Brexit as a Tipping Point: The UK referendum marked a pivotal moment in the global political landscape, introducing uncertainty and setting a precedent for other nations to reconsider their EU membership.
• Globalisation and Labour Mobility: While the 2008 financial crisis affected globalisation in terms of trade and finance, Brexit has added labour mobility to the equation, highlighting the growing concerns of European populists about the impacts of globalisation.
• EU's Response to Brexit: The EUGS outlines the EU's commitment to a liberal international economic order, emphasizing the importance of a strong internal market and open international trade. However, the strategy may not align with the current nationalist sentiments in several EU member states.
• Political Momentum and Integration: The document suggests that the EU needs to respond to the challenges posed by Brexit with bold proposals to reinvigorate political momentum for European integration. Failure to do so risks further decline and fragmentation.
• Uncertainty and Economic Impact: The UK's slow and unclear process of disentanglement from the EU has led to continued uncertainty, affecting global market stability and prompting companies to relocate and investments to be redirected.
• Future of the UK-EU Relationship: The UK is exploring alternatives to full EU membership, such as EEA membership or an "EEA Minus" status. However, these options face significant political and institutional hurdles, particularly regarding the EU's stance on free movement of labour.

关键信息

• EUGS and Global Strategy: The EU Global Strategy emphasizes the need for a strong internal market and an open international economic system. It calls for the EU to be more responsive and flexible in the face of global challenges.
• Domestic Political Reactions: Populist leaders in France, the Netherlands, and other EU countries have welcomed Brexit, using it as a justification for their own calls for referenda and a more nationalist approach to governance.
• EU's Stance on Globalisation: The EU views globalisation as a necessary and beneficial force, with freedom of movement of labour as a core component. This contrasts with some Brexit supporters who seek a more selective form of globalisation.
• Impact on Trade Negotiations: The UK's withdrawal has led to political shifts in trade negotiations, with some EU leaders, such as France, showing reluctance to continue agreements like TTIP, which are seen as pro-globalisation.
• Future Scenarios for the UK: The UK's future relationship with the EU remains uncertain. While Scotland is seeking to remain in the EU, the UK government is exploring alternatives that may not fully align with EU interests.

结论

Brexit has not only challenged the EU's internal cohesion but also redefined the discourse on globalisation. The EU must navigate this new reality by promoting a more integrated and cooperative approach to address global challenges. The UK's uncertain path post-Brexit continues to affect the stability of the European and global markets, underscoring the need for clarity and strategic alignment. The EUGS provides a framework for this, but its success will depend on the willingness of EU member states to embrace change and maintain a forward-looking perspective.