2005年-BIS国际清算银行_Revisiting_recent_productivity_developments_across_OECD_countries_61页_460kb

Summary of "Revisiting recent productivity developments across OECD countries"

Core Content

This BIS Working Paper analyzes recent productivity developments across OECD countries using official business sector data. It highlights the importance of productivity for economic performance, living standards, and policy decisions, while also addressing the challenges and uncertainties in international productivity comparisons.

Main Points and Key Information

Importance of Productivity

• Productivity is a central issue for economic analysis and policy, as it influences potential output, living standards, and long-term growth.
• Higher productivity growth sustains larger real changes in profits and wages.
• A 3% annual productivity growth rate would double GDP in about 25 years, compared to 70 years at 1%.

Productivity and Policy Implications

• Productivity growth estimates are crucial for determining the output gap and influencing interest rate decisions.
• In the long run, potential growth rates affect real equilibrium interest rates.
• Productivity also impacts fiscal policy by affecting the sustainability of budget positions and social benefit payments.

US Productivity Performance

• The US has the highest level of productivity among major industrial countries and has experienced the fastest productivity growth in recent years.
• US productivity has accelerated, while most other OECD countries have seen a deceleration in productivity growth.
• Only a few countries (e.g., some Nordic nations) have shown structural improvements in productivity.
• The US has not only benefited from capital accumulation but also from sustained technological progress, even during the 2001 recession.

Challenges in International Comparisons

• Productivity levels are difficult to compare internationally due to:
  • Differences in measurement methods for output and labor.
  • Exchange rate fluctuations affecting productivity estimates.
  • Variability in how informal activities, employment definitions, and hours worked are measured.
  • Sectoral biases and changes in statistical methodologies over time.
• These uncertainties can significantly affect the ranking of countries in productivity growth.

Labour Productivity Trends

• Labour productivity in the OECD area has generally declined over the past four decades.
• The US has reversed this trend, while other countries have seen slower growth.
• Labour productivity in the US is higher than in most other countries, with notable exceptions like the Netherlands and Belgium.
• The US has also seen a sharper increase in productivity growth in recent years.

Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

• TFP measures the combined productivity of labor and capital.
• TFP growth has declined globally, but the US has shown some improvement.
• Capital accumulation has been strong in many OECD countries, but technological progress has slowed.
• TFP is influenced by the business cycle and the accuracy of statistical methods used to measure output and inputs.

Structure of the Paper

1. Introduction

   • Highlights the growing interest in productivity across OECD countries.
   • Notes the importance of productivity at both the national and global levels.
   • States that the paper will focus on productivity growth and its structural changes.

2. I. A Growing Interest in Productivity Developments

   • Defines productivity and discusses its importance for economic performance and policy.
   • Notes that productivity levels and growth rates are often the focus of analysis.

3. II. Comparisons Across Countries

   • Discusses the imprecision in international productivity comparisons.
   • Points out that differences in statistical methodologies, sectoral biases, and measurement practices contribute to these uncertainties.

4. III. The Issue of Interest: Have Trend Productivity Growth Rates Changed?

   • Analyzes changes in productivity growth rates over time.
   • Notes that the US has experienced a sharp acceleration in productivity growth, while most other countries have seen a slowdown.
   • Highlights the importance of using consistent methodologies to assess productivity changes.

5. IV. The Influence of the Business Cycle

   • Cyclical fluctuations can distort cross-country productivity comparisons.
   • The paper emphasizes the need to account for business cycle effects when analyzing productivity trends.

6. V. Recent Trends in Labour Productivity

   • Presents empirical evidence on how the business cycle affects productivity.
   • Shows that trend labour productivity growth rates vary across OECD countries, with the US leading.

7. VI. Developments in Total Factor Productivity

   • Explains the general framework for TFP analysis.
   • Compares TFP trends across countries, noting that capital accumulation has been strong in most but technological progress has declined.
   • Discusses the implications of TFP trends for future economic performance.

8. VII. Conclusions

   • The US stands out in productivity performance.
   • The paper distinguishes between what has happened and why, emphasizing structural factors like technological progress.
   • It suggests that the US experience may not be easily replicated in other countries due to its unique structural characteristics.

Key Tables and Data

• Table 1: Shows productivity levels in the OECD area, with the US leading in both GDP per capita and labour productivity.
• Table 2: Illustrates the range of uncertainty in productivity measurements, with different methodologies leading to significant variations in rankings.
• Table 3: Provides average annual productivity growth rates across OECD countries, highlighting the US's superior performance in both output per person and output per hour worked.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while there are significant uncertainties in measuring productivity across countries, the US has demonstrated a clear structural improvement in productivity growth, driven by technological progress rather than just capital accumulation. This has important implications for economic policy, financial markets, and international capital flows. Other OECD countries, particularly in Europe and Japan, have seen slower productivity growth, raising concerns about their long-term economic prospects.