2001年-世界发展银行全球_Greenhouse_Gas_Mitigation_in_the_Power_Sector___Case_Studies_from_India_60页_3mb

Summary of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in the Power Sector: Case Studies From India

Core Content

This report, part of the Joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP), presents case studies on greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the power sectors of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh (AP), India. The work was conducted as part of the ESMAP activity on India: Environmental Issues in the Power Sector (EIPS), with the aim of assessing the environmental implications of business-as-usual (BAU) and reform scenarios, and designing a GHG Mitigation Scenario to reduce emissions.

Main Purpose

The purpose of the study is to:

• Include GHG emission impacts in energy sector analysis.
• Analyze GHG mitigation options.
• Estimate the incremental costs of GHG reduction.
• Provide a basis for financing and policy decisions related to climate change and energy sector reform.

Key Findings

GHG Emissions Overview

• Bihar: The power sector contributed 30% of the total GHG emissions in 1995-96, with 4.9 million metric tons (Mt) of carbon equivalent out of 16.6 Mt. Most emissions (4.7 Mt) came from coal burning.
• AP: The power sector contributed 50% of the total GHG emissions in 1996-97, with 9.2 Mt of carbon equivalent out of 18.4 Mt.

Power Sector Characteristics

• Bihar:

  • One of the poorest states in India.
  • The power sector is financially and technically weak.
  • Transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are high (around 40%).
  • Over 90% of power generation is from coal.
  • Limited access to alternative energy sources.
  • Relies on imports from Bangladesh and Nepal.
  • Agricultural and industrial sectors consume significant electricity.

• AP:

  • More developed power sector with a wider range of supply options.
  • Fuel mix includes coal (54%), hydropower (43%), and small amounts of nuclear, wind, and solar.
  • Better access to imported fuels (e.g., LNG, coal).
  • T&D losses are estimated at 32%, still high.
  • Agriculture accounts for 45% of electricity sales, industry for 36%, and domestic for 15%.

Methodology

The study uses a global overlay approach to evaluate the environmental and economic implications of different power sector development scenarios. It involves:

• Load Forecasts: Projecting energy and power demand for a 20-year planning horizon (1997-2015 for Bihar, 1998-2018 for AP).
• Power Development Plans: Considering supply-side and demand-side management (DSM) options.
• Scenario Analysis: Comparing BAU, Reform, and GHG Mitigation scenarios to estimate GHG emissions and incremental costs of mitigation.

Scenarios and Assumptions

Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario

• Bihar: Based on existing plans and known projects. New capacity is insufficient to meet demand growth due to financial constraints.
• AP: Similar approach, with limited new capacity. No investment in T&D loss reduction.

Reform Scenario

• Bihar: Assumed to start in 2000 and complete over 7 years.
• Tariff increases are expected to improve financial viability.
• Power supply from NTPC is increased, and thermal plant rehabilitation begins.
• Captive power plants are assumed to cover 50% of incremental HT industrial and commercial loads.
• Energy efficiency measures (DSM and T&D loss reduction) are introduced.

GHG Mitigation Scenario

• Designed to reduce GHG emissions through specific mitigation options.
• Includes analysis of individual and combined GHG reduction strategies.
• The goal is to estimate the incremental cost of GHG reduction under different scenarios.

Key Mitigation Options

Supply-Side Options

• Bihar: Coal, gas, nuclear, and renewables.
• AP: Coal, hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar.
• Some options, like nuclear and clean coal technologies, are considered for GHG mitigation rather than reform.

Demand-Side Options

• Bihar: Integrated agricultural DSM program, including metering and high-efficiency pumpsets.
• AP: DSM programs for urban lighting and integrated agricultural projects.

Incremental Cost of GHG Reduction

• The study compares GHG emissions and costs under BAU, Reform, and GHG Mitigation scenarios.
• It estimates the incremental cost of reducing GHG emissions, which is important for financing and policy decisions.

Conclusion

The study provides a detailed analysis of the power sectors in Bihar and AP, focusing on GHG emissions and mitigation strategies. It emphasizes the importance of energy pricing and sector reform in achieving "win-win" outcomes for both economic and environmental goals. The results can support financing from the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as inform joint implementation and carbon trading arrangements.

Key Information

• Funding: Supported by the World Bank, UNDP, and various bilateral donors.
• Scope: Limited to two states, Bihar and AP, but their populations are greater than many countries.
• GHG Emissions: Calculated for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O.
• Methodology: Based on the World Bank's Guidelines for Climate Change Global Overlays.
• Load Forecasts: Estimated for both BAU and Reform scenarios, broken down by sector.
• Tariff Assumptions:
  • In Bihar, agricultural tariffs are capped at 50% of supply cost by 2007.
  • In AP, tariffs for industrial, commercial, and domestic sectors are adjusted to reflect economic and financial conditions.
• Economic and Environmental Impact:
  • The study highlights the potential for energy efficiency and DSM programs to reduce emissions.
  • It also underscores the need for institutional and policy reforms to support sustainable energy development.

Annexes and Tables

• Annexes:

  • Annex 1: Load Forecasts
  • Annex 2: Supply-Side Options
  • Annex 3: Demand-Side Options
  • Annex 4: Local Emissions

• Tables:

  • Table 1: Price and Income Elasticities in Bihar
  • Table 2: BAU and Reform Forecasts for Bihar
  • Table 3: Price and Income Elasticities in AP
  • Table 4: BAU and Reform Forecasts for AP
  • Table 5: DSM Program in Bihar (Reform)
  • Table 6: DSM Program for High-Efficiency Refrigerators in Bihar (GHG Mitigation)
  • Table 7: DSM Program for Urban Lighting in Bihar (GHG Mitigation)
  • Table 8: DSM Lighting Program in AP (GHG Mitigation)
  • Table 9: Integrated Agricultural DSM Project in AP (GHG Mitigation)
  • Table 10: Carbon Emissions Factors for Liquid Fuels
  • Table 11: Methane Emissions from Coal Mining
  • Table 12: GHG Emissions and LOLP under BAU and Reform
  • Table 13: GHG Mitigation Scenarios for Bihar

Figures

• Figure 1: Bihar - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Individual Options (Group A)
• Figure 2: Bihar - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Individual Options (Group B)
• Figure 3: AP - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Individual Options
• Figure 4: Bihar - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Combination Scenarios Group A
• Figure 5: Bihar - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Combination Scenarios Group B
• Figure 6: AP - GHG Mitigation Option Supply Curve - Combination Scenarios

Units of Measurement

• Exchange Rate: US$1 = Rs. 43 (at the time of the study).
• Indian Units:
  • 1 crore = 10 million (10⁷)
  • 1 lakh = 100,000 (10⁵)

This study serves as a foundational reference for understanding the environmental and economic implications of power sector reforms in India, with a specific focus on GHG mitigation.