2013年-世界发展银行全球_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Quarterly_Economic_Brief_July_2013___Growth_Slowdown_Extends_into_2013_11页_757kb

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief: Growth Slowdown Extends into 2013

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the economic performance and outlook for five Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries—Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iran—during the period extending into 2013. The region faces a combination of growth slowdowns, rising fiscal deficits and debt, high unemployment, and inflation. Political instability and regional conflicts, particularly in Syria, have had significant spillover effects on these economies, while some countries show signs of gradual recovery.

Main Points

Growth Slowdown and Macroeconomic Challenges

• Five countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iran) are experiencing a slowdown in economic growth, fiscal deficits, and rising debt.
• High unemployment and inflation are persistent issues across the region.
• Political instability and conflict spillovers from Syria are major contributors to the economic decline.

Country-Specific Analysis

Egypt

• Economic growth slowed in the second half of 2012/13 before the new government took office.
• Real GDP growth fell by 2 percentage points compared to the previous year, driven by declining investment and consumption.
• Tourism showed some recovery, but arrivals remained below pre-revolution levels.
• Unemployment rose to 13.2% in 2013Q1, with youth unemployment reaching 42%.
• Fiscal deficits and external imbalances persist, with domestic debt reaching a record high of 87% of GDP.
• Egyptian Pound (EGP) weakened significantly, with a 12% drop against the US dollar since the introduction of financing auctions.

Tunisia

• Growth rebounded in 2012, driven by tourism and mining, but lost momentum in 2013Q1 due to security concerns.
• FDI inflows dropped sharply, especially in tourism and real estate.
• Unemployment reached 18.1% in 2012Q1, but has since declined to 16.5% in 2013Q1.
• High inflation (9% in 2013Q1) and fiscal deficit (increasing to 9.2% of GDP in 2013) are ongoing concerns.

Lebanon

• Growth slowed to below 2% in 2013, with tourism and real estate sectors hit hard by the Syrian conflict.
• Tourist arrivals declined by 12.5% in 2013Q1 compared to the previous year.
• Unemployment is expected to rise above 11% due to weak economic activity.
• Fiscal deficit nearly doubled since 2011, reaching 9.2% of GDP in 2013.
• Public debt rose to over $75 billion, while international reserves remain high, covering over 17 months of imports.

Jordan

• GDP growth declined to 2.2% in 2012Q4 due to the impact of the Syrian conflict and reduced energy imports from Egypt.
• Tourism and remittances have been affected by regional instability.
• Unemployment increased to 12.8% in 2013Q1, with a sharper rise among women.
• Inflation doubled to 7.4% in 2013Q1, driven by higher fuel and transportation prices.
• Public debt rose to 80% of GDP in 2012 and is expected to exceed this in 2013.

Iran

• Growth contracted by 2% in 2012 due to sharp declines in oil production and exports.
• Inflation rose to over 34% in 2012Q4 and is expected to remain high at around 32% in 2013.
• Unemployment reached 15.5% in 2012, with youth unemployment at 25%.
• Currency devaluation and sanctions have disrupted trade and created a multiple exchange rate system.
• Foreign reserves fell by 10% in 2012 and are projected to decline by another 5% in 2013.

Key Information

• The growth slowdown in the region is not limited to one country but is a widespread issue.
• Political instability and conflict spillovers are major drivers of economic decline.
• Fiscal deficits and debt are rising, with Egypt and Jordan experiencing the most significant increases.
• Inflation is a common challenge, with Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iran all seeing sharp increases.
• Unemployment is particularly high among youth and women in all five countries.
• Tourism and FDI are critical for growth but have been severely impacted by security concerns and political instability.
• Regional cooperation and international support may help in the recovery, especially in Tunisia and Iran.

Outlook

• The overall macroeconomic outlook for 2013 is grim for all five countries.
• Tunisia and Iran may see gradual improvement in 2014 due to political stability and new government policies.
• Lebanon and Jordan face continued challenges from the Syrian conflict.
• Egypt is expected to see some recovery but remains under pressure from political uncertainty and economic policy instability.

Sources and Licensing

• This document is published by the World Bank.
• It is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
• Rights and permissions for re-use must be obtained from the Publishing and Knowledge Division at the World Bank.