2016年-世界发展银行全球_Subsidy_Reforms_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_Region___A_Review_34页_757kb

Summary of Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region (2010–2014)

Core Content

This working paper reviews the experience of subsidy reforms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 2010 to 2014, analyzing eight country studies and a cross-country comparative analysis. It highlights the unique nature of this period, marked by significant political changes and an unprecedented wave of subsidy reforms. The paper assesses the motivations, methods, and outcomes of these reforms, and identifies the challenges that remain in their implementation.

Main Points

• Subsidy Reforms in Context: Between 2010 and 2014, the MENA region underwent a major shift in subsidy policy, driven by economic and political pressures.
• Historical Background: Consumer subsidies in the region were introduced between the 1940s and 1970s to stabilize prices and support domestic industries. Over time, they evolved into a key tool for social protection and political control.
• Drivers of Reform: The reforms were triggered by a combination of economic and political factors, including:
  • Economic Factors: Rising oil prices, increasing fiscal pressure, and the unsustainable burden of subsidies on government budgets.
  • Political Factors: Political instability, revolutions, and the need for governments to maintain public support.
• Challenges of Reform: Subsidies were seen as essential for:
  • Social Protection: Reducing price volatility and compensating for general price increases.
  • Political Stability: Buying political consensus and supporting non-democratic regimes.
  • Economic Interests: Supporting monopolies, export competitiveness, and consumer affordability.

Key Information

Table 1: Pros and Cons of Subsidy Reforms

What Triggered Reforms?

• Political Changes: The Arab Spring and related revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen created a new political environment that encouraged subsidy reforms.
• Economic Pressures: Rising oil prices and the unsustainable fiscal burden of subsidies pushed governments to reconsider their subsidy policies.
• Fiscal Constraints: The combination of high oil prices and political instability created a critical fiscal situation that made subsidy reform necessary.

Who Reformed, When, How, and Why?

• Iran (2010): Implemented a major subsidy reform on December 18, 2010, which included significant price increases for energy products and a compensatory cash transfer. However, the reform was partially reversed due to public backlash and political pressures.
• Yemen (2010–2014): Introduced several rounds of price increases, with the most recent being a 60–90% increase in prices in 2014, which led to violent protests. The reform was partially reversed, resulting in only a net increase of 50% in gasoline and 20% in diesel.
• Jordan (2012): Launched a subsidy reform on November 13, 2012, with price increases for petroleum products and a targeted cash transfer program. The reform was accompanied by a freeze on bread prices and adjustments to public transport tariffs based on new fuel prices.

Outcomes and Challenges

• Impact on Prices and Consumption: Reforms led to significant price increases, which reduced consumption of subsidized goods.
• Public Reaction: Despite the intention to improve fiscal sustainability, public backlash was strong, especially in Yemen and Libya, where reforms were reversed due to protests.
• Fiscal Savings: The reforms generated substantial budget savings, which were intended to be redistributed as cash transfers or used for improving public services.
• Incomplete Reforms: Many reforms were only partial, and governments often rolled them back due to political and social pressures.
• Remaining Challenges: The paper concludes that subsidy reforms in the region are still incomplete, and further reforms will require careful management of public expectations and a balance between economic efficiency and political stability.

Conclusion

The subsidy reforms in the MENA region from 2010 to 2014 were a response to both economic and political pressures. While they aimed to reduce the fiscal burden and improve resource allocation, they were often met with resistance due to the perception of subsidies as a social right and the risks associated with their removal. The paper emphasizes the need for more comprehensive and well-communicated reforms to achieve long-term economic and social benefits.