2021-11-19-WTO-世界贸易报告2021_212页_8mb

2021 World Trade Report Summary: Economic Resilience and Trade

Core Content

The 2021 World Trade Report, titled "Economic Resilience and Trade", explores the relationship between trade, trade policy, and international cooperation in enhancing economic resilience in the face of natural and man-made shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic resilience is defined as the ability of a system—households, firms, and governments—to prevent, prepare for, cope with, and recover from shocks.
• The global trading system is both vulnerable and resilient, depending on the context and the nature of the shock.
• Globalization has increased the interconnectedness of economies, making them more susceptible to shocks but also more capable of resilience when shocks occur.
• Trade cooperation is essential to improve economic resilience, as it promotes diversification of products, suppliers, and markets.

Key Information

The Impact of Shocks on Trade

• The pandemic demonstrated how global supply chains can be disrupted, but also how they can be reinforced through international cooperation.
• Despite a 7.6% decline in global trade in 2020, trade in medical supplies increased by 16%, and PPE by 50%.
• Agricultural trade remained stable, preventing food shortages during the pandemic.

Role of Trade in Resilience

• Trade can help countries prepare for, cope with, and recover from shocks by providing access to diverse goods and services.
• Diversification of supply chains is a key strategy for economic resilience.
• Global value chains (GVCs), while increasing exposure to shocks, also provide long-term relationships that can enhance resilience.

International Cooperation

• International cooperation is vital in reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience.
• Cooperation on non-trade policies (e.g., public health, climate change) and trade policies (e.g., trade facilitation, services) can mitigate shocks and support recovery.
• Multilateral cooperation is necessary to ensure inclusive and lasting economic recovery.

Risks and Challenges

• Natural and man-made disasters are becoming more frequent and severe.
• Climate change is increasing extreme weather events, which can have devastating economic and social impacts.
• Zoonotic diseases and cyber-attacks are emerging risks that can be amplified by global trade.
• Inequality and economic fragility are increasing the risk of conflicts and violence.

Economic and Social Consequences

• Poorer households and developing countries are particularly vulnerable to economic shocks.
• Gender inequality has been exacerbated by the pandemic, as women are more likely to be involved in face-to-face services.
• MSMEs (micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises) are more susceptible to shocks due to limited access to finance and infrastructure.

Conclusion

• Economic resilience is not a contradiction to global trade; rather, it is supported by trade and international cooperation.
• Reducing trade dependence and promoting self-sufficiency can reduce resilience, not increase it.
• The WTO has a key role to play in strengthening economic resilience through transparent and predictable trade policies.
• The 12th Ministerial Conference of the WTO offers a key opportunity to advance international cooperation and promote resilient trade systems.

Supporting Content

• The report includes opinion pieces from various experts and organizations, such as the World Bank, McKinsey, and United Nations, discussing resilience in households, supply chains, and global health.
• It also outlines key definitions and abbreviations to aid understanding of the report’s terminology.
• The foreword by the WTO Director-General highlights the importance of trade in economic recovery and resilience.

Summary of Findings

• Global trade has proven to be more resilient than expected during the pandemic.
• Resilience is enhanced through diversification, international cooperation, and effective domestic policies.
• Economic resilience is a multifaceted concept that includes risk management, adaptation, and recovery.
• Trade in services plays a crucial role in anticipating and responding to shocks.
• The WTO must continue to promote global cooperation and enhance transparency to support economic resilience.

Future Outlook

• The WTO should focus on inclusive trade, diversification, and strengthening global cooperation.
• Trade policy and international cooperation are interconnected and mutually reinforcing.
• The report emphasizes the need for a decentralized and diversified production base to enhance resilience against future shocks.