IMF-中非共和国_扩大信贷额度下的第三次和第四次审查_豁免不遵守履约标准的请求和融资保证审查（英）-2025.6_126页_2mb

Summary of the Central African Republic's Third and Fourth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content

The Central African Republic (CAR) has completed the third and fourth reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, which allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 43.22 million (about US$58 million) to address balance of payment needs and support priority spending on public services. The ECF, with an access of SDR 147.48 million (about US$197 million), was approved in April 2023. This disbursement brings total ECF disbursements to SDR 92.29 million (around US$124 million).

The program's performance was mixed, with half of the six Performance Criteria (PCs) for end-June and end-December 2024 met, but the domestic primary deficit and net domestic financing targets were missed. The continuous PC on non-accumulation of new external arrears was also not met due to liquidity pressures and poor coordination between cash and debt units. Additionally, indicative targets for social spending and extraordinary expenditures were not achieved.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

• Growth: Economic growth is expected to rise to 3% in 2025 from 1.9% in 2024, driven by increased energy use, mining recovery, improved security, and the lifting of diamond export embargoes.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to decline to 1.3% by the end of 2025 from 4.2% in 2024, partly due to the cut in pump prices in May 2025.
• Fiscal Challenges: A tighter fiscal stance is needed to address rising debt vulnerabilities. The domestic primary deficit is expected to narrow to 2.1% of GDP in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, assuming strong political backing for tax reforms.

Key Risks

• Fuel Supply Constraints: Despite recent improvements, fuel prices remain high due to opaque and costly imports.
• Weak Public Financial Management (PFM): Weak PFM and limited spending controls have hindered budget execution and contributed to fiscal slippages.
• Political Uncertainty: The upcoming local and presidential elections pose risks to program implementation and public spending.
• Downside Risks: These include fuel supply disruptions, spending overruns, debt rollover pressures, security challenges, and falling foreign aid.

Performance Criteria and Structural Benchmarks

• Performance Criteria (PCs): Half of the six PCs for end-June and end-December 2024 were met. The continuous PC on non-accumulation of new external arrears was not met.
• Structural Benchmarks (SBs): Two out of seven SBs were met, with a third implemented with a delay. The authorities requested rescheduling of two remaining SBs related to fuel price reforms and the audit of fuel procurement costs.

Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Discipline: Strengthening budget discipline is essential for meeting 2025 program targets and ensuring debt sustainability.
• Revenue Mobilization: Prioritize the implementation of appropriate fuel pricing structures, accelerate the monetization of the in-kind fuel grant from Russia, and improve tax compliance and collection.
• PFM Reforms: Enhance PFM, particularly spending controls, to prevent arrears and limit extraordinary procedures.
• Fuel Market Reforms: Accelerate the fuel procurement audit and implement the quarterly pump price adjustment mechanism.
• Structural Reforms: Continue with structural reforms such as the adoption of the new forestry code, implementation of the mining code, and operationalization of the asset declaration system.
• Capacity Development: Strengthen the e-Tax platform, improve the Court of Audit, and enhance the Financial Intelligence Unit.

Financing and Support

• Waivers and Rescheduling: The Executive Board approved waivers for nonobservance of the domestic primary fiscal balance and net domestic financing PCs. It also approved rescheduling of two SBs related to fuel price reforms.
• Donor Support: The World Bank confirmed the renewal of its recurrent cost operations, and France committed to a concessional loan. The authorities have left 90% of ECF access in their SDR account to prefinance payments to the Fund for the next six months, with 10% deposited in an escrow account at BEAC to support WB operations.

Key Documents and Entities Involved

• IMF Staff Report: Completed on May 21, 2025, following discussions with CAR officials.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared by the IMF and World Bank.
• Staff Supplements: Updated information on recent developments and staff oral statements.
• Executive Director Statement: Issued by the IMF Executive Board.
• IMF Mission Team: Composed of representatives from the AFR and SPR departments, including Mr. Touna Mama, Mr. Hatcherian, Mr. Essiane, Mr. Kiendrebeogo, and Mr. Tuuli.

Additional Context

• Security and Governance: Improved security and governance reforms have supported the program, though challenges persist.
• Regional Cooperation: The CEMAC regional review was completed on February 24, 2025, following strong commitments from regional leaders.
• Donor Contributions: Donor support has been crucial, but grant levels remain below pre-2020 levels, affecting debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The ECF-supported program remains a key instrument for CAR's fiscal and governance reforms. While progress has been made in some areas, significant challenges persist in terms of fiscal discipline, PFM, and external debt sustainability. The program's success will depend on continued implementation of reforms, stronger political commitment, and improved coordination among institutions.