20180528-广发证券_香港_-Weekly_HK_Market_and_Sector_Views_5页_399kb

报告摘要

Weekly HK Market and Sector Views Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Hong Kong market and key sectors, focusing on macroeconomic factors, investment strategies, and sector-specific outlooks. It highlights the ongoing volatility in global markets due to geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations, as well as the impact of monetary policy and exchange rate movements on the Hong Kong stock market.

Main Points

Macro Environment

Sino-US Trade Tensions: The joint statement on trade consultations eased initial concerns, but President Trump's dissatisfaction and the cancellation of the US-North Korea summit rekindled market volatility.
Fed Policy Outlook: The Fed's dovish tone suggests no more than four interest rate hikes in 2018, which may lead to higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar.
HK Dollar Depreciation: The HK dollar is expected to face continued depreciation pressure against the dollar, despite short-term stabilization from the HKMA's intervention.
Capital Flows: Southbound net outflows reached Rmb3.6bn, while northbound inflows were Rmb6.3bn, indicating a cautious stance from mainland investors.

Investment Strategy

Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks fell last week, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.48% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index falling 2.49%.
Sector Impact: A tightening credit environment is expected to negatively affect the property & construction and raw materials sectors.
Consumer Sectors: Increased domestic demand is anticipated, with a focus on consumer sectors such as medicine, education, and mass consumption.
Auto Sector: Auto sales are supported by domestic economic growth and consumption upgrades, with Geely and Brilliance China expected to benefit from policy changes and new product launches.
TMT Sector: The mobile phone industry chain remains stable, with 3D sending technology likely to boost valuations. Internet and video sectors are highlighted for their growth potential based on traffic and user engagement.

Key Sectors and Recommendations

Consumer Sector

F&B: Yihai Intl is expected to benefit from accelerated store openings and self-heating hotpot sales.
Gaming: Lagging properties with lower occupancy rates are preferred, as leading properties are nearing full capacity.
Education: Companies like Maple Leaf and Wisdom Education are expected to see improved net profits due to cost control and tuition fee increases.
Retail: Xstep's SSSG growth remains strong, with the Chairman's share purchases indicating confidence. Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are expected to benefit from a strong renminbi.
Recommendations: Yihai (1579 HK), SJM Holdings (880 HK), Melco International (200 HK).

Auto Sector

Auto Sales: 4M18 wholesale volume rose 22.3% YoY, with low dealer inventory suggesting potential for growth.
Tariff Cuts: Auto parts tariff cuts from 10% to 6% provide cost advantages to JV automakers.
Geely Auto (175 HK): Strong sales growth and new product launches (A06, Lynk 02) support a positive outlook.
Brilliance China (1114 HK): Expected to benefit from the launch of the BMW-Brilliance X3 model and tariff cuts.
Auto Dealers: Yongda Auto (3669 HK) and Zhongsheng Holding (881 HK) are highlighted for their performance and potential.
Recommendations: Geely Auto (175 HK), Brilliance China (1114 HK), Yongda Auto (3669 HK), Zhongsheng Holding (881 HK).

Utilities Sector

Wind Power: 1Q18 power generation exceeded expectations, with curtailment issues alleviated.
Natural Gas: Strong 1Q18 sales and positive outlook for coal-to-gas substitution.
Environmental: Biomass and waste incineration are expected to grow rapidly.
Solar: Small power tariff reductions in 2018 are expected to not affect high capacity installation.
Recommendations: China Suntien (956 HK), Datang Renewables (1798 HK), China Gas (384 HK).

TMT Sector

Hardware: Sunny Optical (2382 HK) is expected to benefit from 3D sending technology.
Internet: Traffic (user base and time spent online) is key for valuation, with ARPU being a critical metric for content-driven companies.
Games: High-quality products and traffic operation are key strategies, with survival games still having limited high-end user base.
Advertising: AI and information flow upgrades are driving growth.
Video: Subscriptions and advertising are pushing income growth higher than cost growth, with content differentiation becoming a key competitive factor.
Digital Reading: User pay rate for Chinese Literature (772 HK) is at 5.8%, with growth potential.
Live Streaming: Market landscape is becoming clearer, with remaining platforms securing their positions.
Recommendations: Sunny Optical (2382 HK), Tencent (700 HK), China Literature (772 HK).

Rating Definitions

Buy: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected stock relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.
Positive: Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%.
Neutral: Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
Cautious: Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%.

Analyst Certification and Disclosure

The analysts certify that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal opinions.
No direct or indirect remuneration is linked to specific recommendations.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) does not hold any shares in the mentioned securities.
No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts are not officers of the companies mentioned and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
It is intended solely for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients.
The information may not be allowed to be sold in certain jurisdictions.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of this report.
Investment involves risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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