SSRN-央行数字货币的采用_来自中国的证据_28页_610kb

CBDC Adoption: Evidence from China's E-CNY

Introduction

The paper examines the adoption of China's central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital yuan (e-CNY), providing empirical insights. It highlights that while CBDCs are globally explored, China is a leader due to early research and deployment. The study finds limited CBDC adoption despite promotional efforts and discusses challenges and future potential.

Key Findings on E-CNY Adoption

• Pilot Phases and Expansion: China initiated e-CNY pilots in 2019, expanding to 17 provinces by August 2024. Local governments used red envelopes and incentives to promote adoption, but these efforts did not significantly drive widespread use.
• Adoption Rates: At retail level, e-CNY adoption remains low, with most transactions representing only 0.16% of the money supply (M0). Users predominantly stick to existing apps like Alipay and WeChat Pay.
• User Reluctance: Individual users avoid switching to e-CNY due to factors such as privacy concerns (loss of anonymity in large transactions), weak incentives, and the preference for ecosystem amenities offered by private platforms (e.g., integrated financial services and data benefits).
• System Limitations: The two-tier operational system prevents full disintermediation of commercial banks and avoids direct competition, keeping e-CNY non-interest-bearing and similar to cash.
• Ecosystem Comparison: E-CNY lacks the appeal of established private payment platforms, which offer diverse functionalities, personalized products, and continuous incentives, hindering individual adoption.

Challenges Faced

• Promotional Efforts and Costs: Continuous incentives from the central bank and governments are resource-intensive and hard to sustain.
• Competition: Strong rivalry from private electronic payment systems (e.g., Alipay and WeChat Pay) diminishes the demand for e-CNY as the latter dominate the digital payment market.
• Regulatory and Structural Issues: The non-centralized management of third-party platforms reduces CBDC's advantages, and regulatory risks for private entities weaken its position.

Future Directions and Implications

• Expanded Use Cases: China plans to extend e-CNY applications to business-to-business, cross-border transactions, and financial services, integrating smart contract features could enhance functionality.
• Cross-Border Potential: E-CNY may support internationalization, such as via the Belt and Road Initiative, fostering interoperability with other CBDCs and advancing yuan usage globally.
• Policy Recommendations: Further research is needed on CBDC design within existing payment structures. CBDCs should complement, not compete with, private innovations, balancing public benefits with market dynamics.

Conclusion

The study underscores that empirical CBDC research is scarce, with China's e-CNY facing adoption barriers despite central bank interventions. It suggests that CBDCs must evolve strategically to integrate smart features and potentially improve monetary policy transmission, while addressing global digital currency competition.