2017年-世界发展银行全球_Argentina___Developing_Deep_and_Sustainable_Housing_Finance_Markets_20页_558kb

Summary: Developing Deep and Sustainable Housing Finance Markets in Argentina

Core Content

This report outlines the challenges and opportunities for developing a deep and sustainable housing finance market in Argentina. It discusses the historical context of the housing deficit, the impact of inflation and interest rates, the role of indexation in mortgage lending, the development of a UVA-CER hedge, mortgage insurance, and the need for capital market funding in the context of macroeconomic stability.

Main Points

Housing Deficit and Market Conditions

• Argentina has a significant housing deficit affecting 6 million out of 24 million households.
• Three-quarters of the deficit is qualitative, while the quantitative shortage increases annually.
• Only 190,000 new formal sector housing units are produced annually, compared to 230,000 new households, leading to the growth of informal housing areas and overcrowding.
• The housing market is dominated by high inflation and interest rates, making mortgage lending unaffordable for the majority.

Inflation Indexation and Risks

• Inflation has been a major factor in the stagnation of housing finance.
• Indexation is being reintroduced to improve affordability and reduce risk, but it poses risks if inflation outpaces wage growth.
• UVA (Unidad de Valor Adquisitivo) and CER (Coeficiente de Estabilizacion de Referencia) are used to index mortgage loans.
• Real wage growth has been historically low, and inflation remains high, increasing the risk of unaffordable repayments.

UVA-CER Hedge Development

• The UVA-CER hedge aims to reduce the risk of discrepancies between wage growth and inflation.
• This mechanism could trigger a large-scale revival of the mortgage market, including the secondary market.
• The 2016 law allocated 50 billion pesos to fund UVI-based loans, indicating a strong government commitment.

Mortgage Insurance

• Credit default insurance or guarantees could be used to encourage lending to lower income segments and facilitate securitization.
• However, such mechanisms are considered premature at this stage, as the focus is on multiplying institutions and addressing credit risk through hedging.

Capital Market Funding

• Capital market solutions have been excluded since the 2001/2002 crisis due to macro-financial instability and institutional policies.
• The re-emergence of the capital market as a funding option is essential for sustainable mortgage lending.
• Chile and Mexico have successful examples of using indexation and securitization to develop housing finance markets.

Key Information

Housing Market Statistics

• Housing loans as a share of GDP are currently 0.4%, far below the 5% needed for a sustainable market.
• From December 2015 to April 2017, the volume of housing loans increased from 25.3 to 35.9 billion pesos, an annualized growth of 30%.
• The Integrated Housing and Habitat Plan (2016–2019) aims to provide 1 million housing solutions through two programs:
  • Neighborhood improvement targeting informal settlements.
  • Solucion Casa Propia (SCP), a credit-linked subsidy program for first-time homebuyers.

Legal and Regulatory Framework

• The 2016 law (S-976/16) introduced indexation for mortgage loans.
• The BCRA has developed a framework for financial service protection, but it does not yet include indexed mortgages.
• Securitization is supported by existing legal instruments such as Cedulas Hipotecarias and fideicomisos.
• Argentina has faithfully implemented the Basel III regime for securitization.

Capital Market and Funding

• Private sector deposits are the main funding source for banks, but capital market funding is needed for long-term stability.
• The Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) is being implemented by the BCRA to ensure long-term funding.
• Pension funds (FGS) are the main institutional investors, but they operate under a pay-as-you-go system, limiting their investment capacity.

Tax Amnesty and Repatriation

• A tax amnesty program led to US$116 billion (21% of GDP) repatriated financial savings.
• These funds could be used for long-term investments, including housing loans.
• The program achieved a world record in tax collection, with 1.8% of GDP collected, almost double Indonesia's rate.

Recommendations

• Develop a robust UVA-CER hedge mechanism to mitigate credit risk.
• Promote securitization and capital market funding to deepen the mortgage market.
• Strengthen the legal framework for indexed mortgages and ensure transparency.
• Monitor real wage growth and inflation trends to prevent pricing bubbles.
• Encourage institutional participation and foster market confidence.
• Implement mortgage insurance once the market matures and data on defaults becomes available.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: Shows the growth of housing loans and interest rates over time.
• Figure 2: Indicates that Argentina's mortgage market is among the lowest in the world.
• Figure 3: Highlights inflation expectations and the need for indexation.
• Figure 4a-4b: Compare mortgage credit/GDP in Latin America and Europe.
• Figure 5: Shows that institutional financial assets in Argentina are only 20% of GDP.
• Figure 6: Demonstrates the relationship between price and wage indices.
• Figure 7: Indicates that negative real wage growth is common, but declines over 5% are rare.

Conclusion

Argentina has the potential to develop a deep and sustainable housing finance market, but it requires policy reforms, legal clarity, and capital market integration. The UVA-CER indexation and hedging mechanisms are key tools to improve affordability and reduce risk. The re-emergence of the capital market and increased institutional participation will be critical for long-term market stability and economic growth.